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The talk today was that there is progress in the China / US saga. The progress is essential. But, what will the real scenario be. I am confident there will be positives, however, not all will be bullish once the deal is over. The next rally if it transpires is a rally to sell in beans. The current fundamentals are not bullish. The Chinese are reducing their imports of beans and protein across the board. One offshoot of this could be positive vegoils. The ASF issue is slowing crush in China. Rather than run plants at a negative, the Chinese may up vegoil imports. The US could be a major winner in this scenario. There remains structural issues in the protein on a global scale in my opinion. Look at the nov 2019, and the 2020 crop years anywhere above 950, certainly above 970.

The Corn is feeling positive the last two days with progress in the talks. The private analysts are still predicting more corn acres. I dont see the large scale increase. ( I could be wrong ). The weather looks poor for early results in field work and for early planting. This will not bode well for the corn. The question then is yield. There is an ample amount of corn in the world. However the US balance sheet could turn friendly this spring. In addition, the Chinese hold 2/3 rd of the global stocks. The global scenario could turn friendly with many scenarios changing slightly. I still favor long corn short other commodities. This could be just getting going. As always quantify your risk. There are only two sure things in life death and taxes. USE STOPS.

To contact me to discuss any thoughts 800 993 5449



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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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