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Livestock Report: Wolfe Wave Hedging Opportunity For Feeder Cattle


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August Feeder Cattle has formed a Wolfe Wave pattern and provides an opportunity for producers needing downside price protection. It is in the fifth wave of the pattern and price reached a high at 151.875 today which is just below the fifth wave’s trendline at 151.975. A breakout above the trendline has strong resistance at 152.40 – 152.73 and then 153.775. Failure at these levels could lead to a decline in August Feeder Cattle. The opportunity would be to sell higher strike calls and buy nearby puts.

 

With August Feeders trading at its current price level:

 

Sell the August 156 Call and buy the 148 put for even money minus commissions and fees.

 

On a rally to 152.73 to 153.80, consider the following long term strategy:

 

Buy the August Feeder Cattle 150 Put for 3.00 ($1500.00 debit)

Sell 2 of the August Feeder 164 calls for 2.00 apiece ($2,000.00 credit)

Buy 1 of the Oct Live Cattle 130 calls for 30 ($120.00 debit)

I can package all legs together for a colloection of $350 - $380 minus 4 commisions and fees.

On a test of the higher resistance levels we can look at different option levels. Give me a call and we can go over different scenarios for your hedging needs.

 For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursday, February 14th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

 

 

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *

 

 

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

             888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109,

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS. 



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About the author


Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading

I began my career in the Securities industry working as a runner on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange while I attended Pace University. I then started working for Salomon Brothers in their Government Bond Trading arena. After graduating from Pace University with a degree in Accounting, I transferred to Chicago and became a member of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange utilizing my experience to execute trades and manage risk for institutional clients as a broker for Salomon Brothers on the trading floor. I then embarked to trade for my own account in the stock indices pits as a local before moving off the floor to aid and assist individual clients in their trading endeavors. I now work at Walsh Trading holding a series 3 broker’s license whose duties include being the firm’s Chief Market technician.

I understand that every client's needs are different, and I pride myself in tailoring my service to each client's unique circumstances and needs. Individual client experience, risk tolerance, and capital all play a role in how I approach the markets. I am involved in all markets using technical analysis to find opportunities. My approach is driven by the principles of capital preservation.

My trading philosophy is that if you can recognize and manage the risk, you have a better chance to be successful in trading. I advise clients to always use stops as money management in my opinion is the most important ingredient in trading commodities.

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