rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Grains Report 02/12/19


Bookmark and Share

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 11
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 07, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/07/2019 01/31/2019 02/08/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 98 539 6,632 20,386
CORN 743,536 901,214 846,524 23,209,767 15,736,922
FLAXSEED 24 0 24 242 4,721
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 200 1,297 1,993 9,683
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 84,378 24,157 33,317 680,762 2,368,266
SOYBEANS 1,063,973 1,091,642 1,339,609 22,628,512 36,051,983
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 562,307 442,775 499,825 15,389,342 17,143,976
Total 2,454,218 2,460,086 2,721,135 61,917,250 71,335,961
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

ADM InvestorServices‏ @TradeADMIS 9m9 minutes ago
#StockIndexFutures advanced after US lawmakers reached a tentative deal to avert another partial govt #shutdown. In addition, there was support US & China expressed optimism about ongoing #tradetalks.

DJ Brazil Cuts Forecast for 2018-2019 Soybean Crop
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for the 2018-2019 soybean harvest, trimming its estimates for every region of the country as hot, dry weather in December and January hit productivity.
Brazilian farmers will produce 115.3 million metric tons of soybeans in the season, for which harvesting is well under way, Conab said Tuesday. That compares with its forecast in January for a crop of 118.8 million tons and to the harvest of 119.3 million tons in the 2017-2018 season.
Brazil has been growing bigger and bigger soybean crops in recent years, as steady demand from China has spurred producers to expand the area planted with the oil seeds. The 2018-2019 season will be the first in three that farmers didn’t produce a record crop, even as the planted area increased, because of unusually high temperatures and lower-than-normal precipitation in many areas.
Brazil’s mild winters allow the country’s farmers to produce two crops of corn each year, and Conab cut its estimate for the first corn crop, which has also been hit by the bad weather. The agency also raised its forecast for the second crop.
The result is a slightly higher forecast for the total corn crop, of 91.7 million tons, from the January forecast of 91.2 million tons. In the 2017-2018 season, Brazil produced a total corn crop of 80.7 million tons.

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were mixed, with Chicago SRW and Minneapolis slightly higher and Chicago HRW slightly lower. News of new demand from Nigeria as well as confirmation of the Egyptian purchase supported Wheat. Indonesia might have also bought US Wheat in the last week. The news was another shot of positive demand news for a market that needs positive news. Attitudes on Wheat prices remain generally positive, but the market has struggled to move higher. USDA showed higher ending stocks in its reports Friday, and stocks are projected to be just above one billion bushels. The quarterly stocks estimate was also above expectations at 1.999 billion bushels. World ending stocks were slightly lower. The Wheat seedings report was below trade projections and implies that the US will have a smaller crop again this year. There are those that say that abandoned acres will also be significant, so there is a chance for a very small crop. The smaller planted area came because of very bad planting weather in the Great Plains and Midwest and low prices. The Fall season in both regions featured a lot of rain that hurt harvest and planting all season long. Price trends are trying to turn down on the daily charts, but weekly charts are still more sideways.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather after snow today. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 501 and 489 March. Support is at 512, 509, and 508 March, with resistance at 524, 529, and 531 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 485, 477, and 462 March. Support is at 488, 485, and 483 March, with resistance at 499, 507, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 569, 563, and 561 March, and resistance is at 576, 578, and 582 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower last week as the trade prepared for negative USDA reports. USDA released the reports on Friday and production was increased. Most of the production increase came from better than expected yields. US production was estimated at 224.2 million hundredweight, up 5.9 million from the last report. Demand on both the domestic and export side was also increased, but ending stocks were higher. Long Grain production was 164 million hundredweight, up about 285 from last year, and medium and short grain production was up slightly at 60 million hundredweight. World ending stocks levels were also increased, mostly on increased production in China. Data for the rest of the world was left mostly unchanged on the production side. Only slight modifications were made on the world demand side. The report was considered negative for futures prices. The trade will concentrate now on the weather. Delays in initial fieldwork are being reported in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation late this week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1017 March. Support is at 1036, 1034, and 1031 March, with resistance at 1049, 1059, and 1067 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday. The market was still feeling selling pressure from the Friday USDA reports, and the US Dollar moved sharply higher. Corn held well considering the news and the Dollar. USDA trimmed domestic demand in all areas last week and left ending stocks estimates a little higher than expected. Reduced ethanol demand had been expected, but this demand was cut less than many in the trade had expected. USDA cut more demand from the feed and industrial categories than the energy category. These changers helped keep US and world ending stocks a little higher than the trade had expected. Trade attention will now turn to Washington as it moves to resolve trade problems with China, Europe, and Japan, among others, and pushes for passage of the new North American trade agreement. China and the US are meeting now and there are hopes that a lot of progress can be made. South American weather is improving as some showers are reported now in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. Current short-term patterns suggest that futures should not be able to move below 365 March.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 122,376 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 371, 368, and 367 March. Support is at 371, 370, and 367 March, and resistance is at 377, 379, and 381 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 280, 278, and 277 March, and resistance is at 288, 289, and 294 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling tied to the stronger US Dollar and reports of significant harvest progress in Brazil. The Brazil harvest is now over a quarter complete, and Brazil prices got a lot of support yesterday from the strength in the US Dollar. Funds were the best sellers in the complex. China and the US started a new round of meetings yesterday and hopes for progress are great. No news came from the talks yesterday. Brazil has reduced production, but Argentine production appears good, and both countries are now offering at prices that compete with the US for sales. On the other hand, producers in the Americas are not real interested in selling right now due to lower prices. The supplies for the world are there, but will need to be pried out of the hands of the sellers. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts for these markets, and the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check. Trends are turning down on the daily charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 891 and 875 March. Support is at 900, 891, and 889 March, and resistance is at 918, 922, and 924 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 299.00 March. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 298.00 March, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3010, 2970, and 2950 March, with resistance at 3050, 3070, and 3100 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and Palm Oil. Speculators and domestic processors were the best buyers, and speculators and producers were the best sellers. The buying was scale down, and the selling was more aggressive. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil were lower. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is down this year. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. Palm Oil was lower and made new lows for the move on weaker demand data from the private sources.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 428.00 March. Support is at 474.00, 471.00, and 465.00 March, with resistance at 486.00, 489.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2230 and 2170 April. Support is at 2250, 2230, and 2200 April, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2350 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and mostly below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 63 March 160 March 90 March 33 March Price
March 61 March 85 March 32 March
April 50 May 75 May 22 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February 52 March
March 55 March -13 March
April 52 May -17 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 467.20 dn 0.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 494.70 dn 3.60
2 Can 481.70 dn 3.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 509.70 dn 3.60
2 Can 496.70 dn 3.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 567.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 550.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 440.00 -0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,140 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 173.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 115,188 lots, or 4.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,292 3,326 3,280 3,326 3,287 3,307 20 762 1,968
May-19 3,527 3,531 3,493 3,507 3,495 3,512 17 106,580 133,146
Jul-19 – – – 3,504 3,504 3,504 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,542 3,549 3,520 3,537 3,508 3,535 27 5,828 21,764
Nov-19 – – – 3,475 3,450 3,475 25 0 14
Jan-20 3,449 3,457 3,432 3,443 3,439 3,447 8 2,018 8,106
Corn
Turnover: 370,868 lots, or 6.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,846 1,846 1,834 1,835 1,833 1,842 9 8,174 17,112
May-19 1,867 1,871 1,859 1,861 1,864 1,864 0 229,750 1,005,812
Jul-19 1,893 1,896 1,884 1,885 1,891 1,890 -1 87,180 22,534
Sep-19 1,895 1,901 1,890 1,892 1,894 1,894 0 44,566 358,492
Nov-19 1,919 1,919 1,915 1,915 1,913 1,916 3 160 1,092
Jan-20 1,928 1,931 1,922 1,924 1,923 1,926 3 1,038 16,340
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,624,822 lots, or 42.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,633 2,645 2,624 2,643 2,631 2,636 5 137,748 54,332
May-19 2,597 2,623 2,594 2,616 2,589 2,608 19 1,176,262 1,787,732
Jul-19 2,622 2,645 2,620 2,641 2,605 2,627 22 73,922 76,424
Aug-19 2,668 2,676 2,658 2,673 2,630 2,668 38 8 230
Sep-19 2,664 2,686 2,659 2,681 2,652 2,671 19 226,260 546,818
Nov-19 2,686 2,700 2,679 2,696 2,673 2,691 18 880 2,908
Dec-19 2,713 2,720 2,711 2,720 2,716 2,719 3 52 206
Jan-20 2,714 2,738 2,712 2,737 2,706 2,725 19 9,690 50,796
Palm Oil
Turnover: 309,516 lots, or 14.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 – – – 4,600 4,600 4,600 0 0 0
Mar-19 – – – 4,756 4,756 4,756 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,762 4,780 4,716 4,764 4,784 4,758 -26 282,300 445,326
Jun-19 4,766 4,818 4,766 4,818 4,846 4,804 -42 12 56
Jul-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,800 4,828 4,772 4,810 4,830 4,810 -20 26,320 74,776
Oct-19 – – – 4,890 4,910 4,890 -20 0 24
Nov-19 4,870 4,888 4,870 4,888 4,876 4,882 6 6 18
Dec-19 4,958 4,960 4,958 4,958 4,936 4,958 22 12 44
Jan-20 4,824 4,868 4,818 4,852 4,860 4,852 -8 866 1,894
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 404,352 lots, or 23.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 5,404 5,514 5,404 5,460 5,502 5,460 -42 64 148
May-19 5,746 5,758 5,684 5,708 5,752 5,716 -36 333,206 730,452
Jul-19 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,684 5,684 5,684 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,826 5,842 5,768 5,794 5,830 5,800 -30 68,002 198,788
Nov-19 – – – 5,912 5,912 5,912 0 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,838 5,868 5,838 -30 0 10
Jan-20 5,912 5,938 5,878 5,894 5,920 5,908 -12 3,080 10,790
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.



Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2019 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy