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Currency Playbook - Blue Line FX Rundown

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FX Rundown

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Euro (March)

Fundamentals: This section is on the Euro, but it cannot go unsaid how poor this morning’s data from the U.K was. Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Business Investment and GDP MoM all contracted at a worse rate than expected. Growth overall was the worst since 2012. With no fresh major headlines out of Europe and an already vulnerable Euro, the path of least resistance was clearly lower for the sixth straight session. Last week, the European Commission lowered their growth forecast and Italy officially embarked on recession territory. Adding a tailwind to the Dollar was fresh weakness in the Chinese Yuan coming out of a week-long holiday and the Dollar is acting as a safe haven echoing those European recession fears. Today, new Fed Governor Bowman, in her first appearance as such, supported the Fed’s patience before hiking rates and added the U.S economy is in a good place right now.

Technicals: In our FX Rundown video last week, we reiterated our outright Neutral stance after a move below support aligning multiple technical indicators near the 50-day moving average at 1.14375-1.1450. Price action has continued to bleed lower taking out major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels



Yen (March)

Fundamentals: The Yen nosedived into support today on Dollar strength coupled with equity markets treading water. This led to less demand for safe havens and especially those priced in Dollars such as the Yen and Gold. Today was a holiday in Japan and although it was closed, Nikkei futures gained 0.7% along with many equity markets across the globe that followed the spike in U.S benchmarks late Friday. Overall, the global growth fear rhetoric has taken a breather to remind investors that central banks are now more likely to step in and help. Nothing like seeing all major indicators in the U.K contract while the FTSE gained nearly 1%. Tonight, Tertiary Industry Activity is due at 10:30 pm CT.

Technicals: The bad news is that the Yen is at the lowest level since December 28th. The Good news is there is constructive support at .. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.



Aussie (March)

Fundamentals: Early strength on positive hopes surrounding the start of a fresh round of trade talks between the U.S and China and Beijing quickly dissipated in the face of broad Dollar safe-have strength due to global growth fears and weakness in the Chinese Yuan. The Aussie rallied sharply through January, but sentiment is coming in fairly quickly with a potential RBA rate-cut in the picture. Tonight, Aussie Home Loans, and Business Confidence headline the economic calendar.

Technicals: The Aussie is sitting right at its failure zone, major three-star support comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.



Canadian (March)

Fundamentals: The Canadian finished lower but it certainly could have been worse. Friday’s jobs data was tremendous and lifted the Canadian in the face of U.S Dollar strength and budding international trade fears. Still, the Canadian can only do so much with the U.S Dollar arguably melting higher and Crude Oil trending lower over the last couple sessions. Traders do want to keep an eye on the Chinese Yuan and if it continues to weaken, it would drag commodities which would trickle into the Canadian regardless of data. Remember, jobs along with House Starts beat, but data out of Canada has been inconsistent.

Technicals: Today was not a pretty session but given the moves in other currencies, the Canadian skated by. Major three-star support comes in at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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