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Focus is on U.S.-China Trade Talks this Week

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February 11, 2019


U.S. stock index futures advanced as the latest trade talks between the U.S. and China began in Beijing.

These talks will begin with working level discussions from Monday through Wednesday. Higher principal level discussions will take place Thursday and Friday with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Some analysts are becoming more upbeat that a deal can be reached by the March 1 deadline.

With fourth quarter earnings season nearing an end, 71.5% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported results have topped profit estimates, according to data from Refinitiv.

Stock index futures have been performing better than the news would suggest since the lows were made in late December.


The U.S. dollar advanced again by default due to weaker economic data from Europe.

The British pound fell on news that the U.K. economy expanded at its slowest annual rate in six years in 2018.

Economic growth in the U.K. last year was 1.4%, which is down from 1.8% in 2017.

This is another example of a series of downbeat economic reports coming out of Europe.


Flight to quality longs are being liquidated due to optimism that progress will be made in the U.S.-China trade talks this week.

Financial futures markets are predicting a 79% probability that the fed funds rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 2.25%-2.50% this year.

There is a 20% chance of reduction in the fed funds rate by 25 basis points in 2019 and there is a 1% probability of a 25 basis point increase this year.

The thirty year Treasury bond futures have remained in a broad trading range since the first week in January. A U.S.-China trade agreement, or hint of one, would be the catalyst to take futures lower.


March 19S&P 500

Support 2700.00 Resistance 2728.00

March 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.360 Resistance 96.710

March 19Euro Currency

Support 1.13210 Resistance 1.13710

March 19Japanese Yen

Support .90730 Resistance .91450

March 19Canadian Dollar

Support .75190 Resistance .75550

March 19Australian Dollar

Support .7063 Resistance .7120

March 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 146^0 Resistance 146^30

April 19Gold

Support 1303.0Resistance 1319.0

March 19Copper

Support 2.7700 Resistance 2.8250

March 19 Crude Oil

Support 51.34 Resistance 52.88

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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