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Two And Only Two Trades; Part X


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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Two And Only Two Trades: Part X

Here is what I have touted often and loudly since October.

When I look at the Big Four: stocks, bonds and currencies I see little to do. In fact, I see two and only two trades to concentrate upon moving forward. And here is what I have touted for the past two months: Since October, my lean has been to concentrates on, two and only two trades. I favor those two trades because for the following reason: "In terms of profitability and probability there are two top trades to focus on in the 4 months ahead. One is on the long side of the ledger, the other the short side. Both have the potential to rise or fall $4000 to $6000 each. Thus, long one and short the other could possibly reap sizable gains."

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In the week that just ended, and on Friday, in particular, stocks as measured by the Dow Jone rallied a bit more than 700 points ( but the day before they fell 666 points (mark of the Devil!) while the CRB Index posted a 180 point gain. The rise with both markets to some extent is being attributed to the a, blow out jobs report showing the US economy remains in good shape.


But keep in mind, that the week before last, the Dow and the CRB fell to a 20 month low. Thus, last week and Friday were certainly bullish but they should have been since both slumped to a 20 month low amid hand wringing and crying on Wall Street and in the ag-community. In the 3rd quarter of last years, stocks and bonds collapsed!


My point is this. I see, Two And Only Two Trades to concentrate on moving forward. One is on the long side of the ledger, the other the short side. Last week, the long position made approximately $500 profit while the short side was up $448 per contract. The trade made, in theory, $52 more than it lost.


And over this weekend, the news that surfaced appears to be more bullish for the long side of that trade than the short side. For the week ahead, I will continue to concentrate on, Two and Only Two Trades moving forward. The news that surfaced may support that trade once more. Time will tell.


Those that are following me on this trade should stay the course. Hold the long side of the trade and buy breaks. Hold the shorts side as well and sell rallies. If my work is correct, there is more to come on both sides of the trade in terms of profit. And in terms of probabilty.


Certainly, there is a great deal going on in the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities amid record setting volatility. There is nary a market anywhere that is not moving with the speed of light. And with the volatility there will be other trades and opportunities unfolding in the near future that also offer the potential for profit. But for me and for now, I see, Two And Only Two Trades to concentrate on into the end of the 1st quarter of 2019.


Those interested in knowing about those two trades, what market to buy and what market to sell short can drop me a line at commodityinsite1@gmail.com. Or call me at 406 682 5010.


And those that purchase my book, Haunted By Markets receive 1 month free of my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Insite at no cost. A heck of a deal! Check it out at www.commodityinsite.com.


There is no substitute for timely and accurate information. Do not be left behind in the New Year. Do not be left behind.


The time is Sunday, January 6, 8:33 a.m. Chicago





























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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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