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"Twas The Week Before Christmas"


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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Below is my weekly newspaper column from December 28. I hope you find it of interest. My newspaper column, Commodity Insite is the longest running futures column in history, having been published without interruption since the early 1980s. My book, Haunted By Markets is a compilation of my various columns from 1990 to 2015.


My column is sent the handful of weekly ag-newspapers that publish my ramblings for the past zillion years. They receive my column on Friday, deadline day. Those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter, Commodity Inside and my brokerage clients receive it on the next day, Saturday.


My column this week is entitled, Commodities Will Rule and Stocks Will Drool In 2019. Over the next two weeks that column will also show up here on Inside Futures. But if you would like a copy of it now, let me hear from you!



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December 28, 2019

Twas The Week Before Christmas

Historically, the week before Christmas is calm with little in the way of intense volatility for the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. But this year was far different and more bearish than anything seen in history. And that is what my column this column is all about.


**Twas the week before Christmas,

N not a bull was left standin

Cause stocks n commodities,

Collapsed to a hard landin. Commodity Insite, 12/22/18


** The week before Christmas, 2018, the worst for the Dow Jones in 10 years.


** But the entire month of December 18, was the worst for the Dow Jones in 85 years, going back to 1931.


** The stock market just booked its ugliest Christmas Eve plungeever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked its most severe drop ever on Christmas Eve, finishing 710 points lower. From Market Watch.com 12/24/18


** Prior to this week, the worst the Dow ever performed the trading day before Christmas was December 23, 1933 when it fell 0.84% to settle at 98.04 compared to this years settlement of 21,700. Obviously, compared to 1933, the Dow appears pricey. But both trading sessions were brutally bearish. Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite 12/24/18


** Commodities as measured by the CRB Index fell to a 20 month low on Christmas Eve. So did the Dow Jones.


** Crude oil prices fell 11% in the week before Christmas. From October, crude oil prices dropped 40%.


** A $10,000 investment in Bitcoin in December, 17 would be worth $3200 just before Christmas Eve 2018


** Peter Schiff chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, a longtime market pundit said, This isnt a bear market. Were in a house of cards that the Fed built. Market Watch 12/22/18

**The bear market is here and stocks will plunge at least 20 percent. Ned Davis Research, CNBC News 12/22/18


**This week is the 89th anniversary of the Great Crash of October 24, 1929. To understand how bearish that particular day was consider the following. On that fateful day, the Dow Jones fell 12% and continued to grind lower for several years thereafter. It finally bottomed on July 8, 1932 at 41.22, having lost 90% of its value from the high of 381.2 on September 3, 1929. And not until November 23, 1954, 25 years later did the Dow rise back to the all-time high. Commodity Insite, in a chapter entitled, Dont Be Left Behind, 10/19/18


** It is likely that a major and long term high for US and global stocks was seen this week. Stocks should drop further to the downside. Or, at best, move in a sidewise pattern where values remain stuck in a volatile trading range where rallies will be sold and breaks bought for the next decade. Commodity Insite, A Lost Decade, 10/26/18


** Parts of the U.S. government shut down early the week before Christmas as Congress missed a deadline to pass spending bills.


** "Weve had five consecutive years of low net farm income, and so what you see is a lot of farmers and ranchers finding themselves in a position now where theyve gone through a lot of their equity in recent years and have had to decide whether to continue in the business," said the Chief economist of the Farm Bureau.CNBC News 12/22/18


**Forget the Santa rally, the stock market is fending off one of its worst Decembers in recent memory, and now the Nasdaq has finished in a bear market. Its a scenario that may unofficially commence the end of the longest equity market bull run, by some measures, in history. Market Watch 12/22-18.


** Apple just entered a death cross, and Wall Street should 'prepare for the worst. After hitting records in October, the stock has slumped 33 percent in one of the worst performances on the Dow. A death cross is formed when a stock's 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day moving average. The bearish technical move implies the rapid deterioration of a stock's upward momentum. CNBC News 12/22/18.


** But everything above was before Christmas day. The day after Christmas, the Dow rallied nearly 1200 points and the CRB Index was also sharply higher. The day after Christmas, was the most bullish day in history for stocks and commodities. And that followed the day before Christmas that was the most bearish day in history before Christmas. And now, a New Year looms large!


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I am quite bullish commodities for 2019. Dont be left behind! And if you have access to timely and accurate information you wont be left behind. After all, there is no substitute for timely and accurate information.



Haunted By Markets can be found at www.commodityinsite.com. And I can be reached at 406 682 5010.


The time is 7:26 a.m. Chicago









































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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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