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S&P 500 Daily Market Forecast


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After a few good days the market had a strong down day today and looks like it might resume it's downward trend. The question is : How far will it go ? A look at the five year monthly chart shows that it might find some support around the 2100 level. This would represent another 15% or so drop from the current levels. How likely is this? Statistics tells us that in any 10 year period there is at least a 93.94% probability of a drop of -20% or more. The current PE ratio for the S&P 500 is at 18.76 which is at about 19.26% from the mean of 15.73. So if you think there is any merit to the reversion to the mean theory...



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Michael Grech is a Geophysicist turned Entrepreneur turned Quantitative Trader and Investor. A few months into his first job after college he attended a talk by a popular author and financial advisor. This talk promoted the tenets of conventional investing wisdom based on a buy and hold strategy applied to a portfolio with a mixed allocation of stocks and bonds. After committing to this approach diligently over the next 10 years, he had nothing to show for it. In fact his portfolio had less monies in it than he had put in. Significantly less. And it did not matter which financial advisor or financial company had been managing it, they all showed bad results. This motivated him to take a more active role in his saving and to start managing his own monies. His background in mathematics and physics led him to adopting a quantitative science based approach to his investments. What started out as a side hustle turned into a full time occupation. Since 2011 Michael has been making his living off his investments. Over time he has developed quantitative systems that generate average annual returns of 30% or more.  In 2017 Michael launched QUANTOPOLIS.COM to share his investment philosophy and allow other trades access to some of his strategies. His book : What Your Financial Advisor Is Not Telling You : A Scientific Approach To Boost Your Investment Returns And Minimize Risk was published in August 2018. Today Michael uses a 100% quantitative approach for all his investments trading stocks, ETFs, options and futures.  His passion is to educate people on the quantitative approach to investing and make it accessible to everybody.
 
 
Contributing author since 09/18/2018 

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