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Bad Predictions


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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Below is my weekly newspaper column from December 21, entitled, Bad Predictions. Hope you find something in my ramblings of interest.


My weekly newspaper column is sent to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter Commodity Insite, to my brokerage clients and to those that bought my book, Haunted By Markets. And my book can be found at www.commodityinsite.com.


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Bad Predictions

The following is from Haunted By Markets in a chapter entitled, A Happier Year Ahead that I penned for this newspaper on December 21, 2012. I decided to re-print parts of that chapter this week because I was optimistic about the year 2013. And since I am already on record as dubbing 2018 as, Annus Horribilis, a Latin phrase meaning, terrible year but also characterizing 2019 as, Annus Mirabilis a wonderful year, I thought a bit of history was in order. Anyway, here is the first paragraph from that chapter 6 years ago.

The New Year is but a few trading sessions away and as always no one can say with certainty if the months ahead will be bullish or bearish the U.S. economy. Unfortunately, the stock and commodity markets are not offering many clues about what the future holds either. Personally, I believe the coming year to be bright economically speaking and bullish commodities. If erroneous with such an optimistic outlook it would not be the first time I was woefully wrong. To which my wife will attest.


In the weeks ahead, I will be offering some forecasts and predictions of my own about the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. Some of my predictions will be wrong as they have in the past. Some of my predictions will be on target as in the past. And below are some of the worst, yet humorous predictions from years ago. The following is from rinkworks.com posted way back in 2012 and each is good for a chuckle or two.



** Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.


** "This 'telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.


** Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.


** Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927


** "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977


The worst forecast I ever made was in October, 2012 in an article entitled, A Sleeper from Haunted By Markets. I predicted that July KC wheat futures that just hit a 16 month high of $9.02 a bushel could quickly rise to $12 a bushel. Instead, the market peaked out 2 months later at $9.47 and headed south over the following 4 years until the summer of 2016 when it touched a low $3.71. What a terrible forecast that was on my part. Still, it was not nearly as bad the forecasts above as outlined by rinkworks.com. Not nearly as bad!


And here is another paragraph from, A Happier Year Ahead, that can be equally applied to 2019. A few weeks ago Goldman Sachs, one of the nations foremost financial institutions stated, It is tempting to call an end to the commodity super cycle amid less supply constraints and slowing growth in China. Instead, investors, producers and traders are looking at, the next phase of a commodity investment cycle that began in the late 1990s that will create new opportunities. We therefore view the current transition as a, renaissance rather than an end.


This year ended on a sour note as most stock and commodity markets were under heavy selling pressure due to fears of slow economic growth in China and potentially the U.S. as well. The fears in the marketplace in late 2018 were not much different than the same fears that surfaced in late 2012.



To understand how ugly 2018 turned out to be consider the following. The Dow Jones experienced the worst December since 1931, 87 years ago, at the depths of the Great Depression. In 2018, stocks, bonds, commodities and most all other asset classes have not done so poorly and at the same time since Richard Nixon was President in 1972, 46 years ago. And that of course, is why weeks ago I dubbed 2018, as, Annus Horribilis.


Hopefully, my forecasts for 2019 will not be nearly as bad as those listed above by rinkworks.com. At least I dont think they will be. But as always, only time will tell.


Regardless, take time to check out, www.commodityinsite.com. That is where you will find the only book of which I know that is a history book about the futures markets for the Big Four: stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities from the years 1990 to 2015. Check it out!


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The time is 8:13 a.m. Chicago





























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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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