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AG TIME - Much to Consider

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The soy has had a nice rally. It is important to realize that this is a historically high price given the stocks to usage. In addition, the current price is actually $1.60 per bu higher given the Administrations one time payment to the farmer this year. The board is playing a bit of roulette here in my opinion. The market has dialed in the fact that China will start purchases again of US beans. However, what if this does not transpire? Or only transpires in a limited way? The window to actually need US beans is closing. The Brazilian crop will be ready partially for export come January. It is important in my opinion to note that the Brazilian pork and chicken production is in decline. This coupled with the reductions for Chinese pork will cut into protein needs. This equals more beans available. The Chinese meal market broke approx 7-8% this week due to this fact. As I say there is much to consider. Use this and further rallies to hedge beans. There are potential strategies that can be quantifiable. Buy puts and sell calls. Please call for specific trades. Each hedger has a different risk tolerance and any specific ideas will take that into consideration.

The corn continues to show some strength. It is my belief this will continue a bit more. The US still is in a good position as far as global price goes. There is still a window the US can be the important supplier. I call this a window because the next production cycle could potentially make the US less competitive. The next important aspect to consider will be the stocks next week. This could have a positive impact. The US stocks are friendly, in my opinion. The global acreage must be considered. As well as the fact that cattle production and demand for beef are on the upswing. This could become an important consideration.

Thank You all for the kind responses. To discuss this or any other thought please call 800 993 5449 or



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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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