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Day Session Grains Analysis


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ZS [Jan19 Soybeans]

The Upside Story: Does not exist unfortunately. We have to take out 913.60 to believe that there is an upside story. If we do, there are points of resistance at 917.45 and if bulls want to revisit recent highs, expect to find a wall of resistance at the 924 area.

The Downside Story: Encountering selling at initial resistance today since the European open which sits just above 913.60. This could run into a wall of support at 905.80 but failing that is secondary level of support at 902.05. If sellers really want to do a decent job here they could push this lower to 895.55 which has very good support.

ZM [Mar19 Soybean Meal]

The Upside Story: If we are able to push higher from the current price level [315.3] as I write this, we have opportunity to take this to 317 and beyond there to 318.2. Above there is smooth sailing up into 320.1.

The Downside Story: If we drop from here, expect 314.6 to provide some decent support. If that support does not hold, look for 313.4 on the downward move and below there is excellent support at 311.5.

ZL [Mar19 Bean Oil]

The Upside Story: We are running into the initial support area [28.82] early today. Holding this level is good for Bean Oil prices and we will likely run into good resistance at 28.98. Pushing above here has intermediate resistance points at 29.07 and above there a decent profit target at 29.20 should hold the gains for the day.

The Downside Story: Inability to hold 28.82 will find some support at 28.74 and below there is a free fall to 28.60.

ZW [Mar19 Wheat]

The Upside Story: Looks a whole lot better today having held initial resistance at 516.83 and trying to overcome the next level of resistance at 518.41. Pushing above here will find room to move up to 521.06 and only if the bulls make a huge showing will we scale above 525 today.

The Downside Story: Not holding finding buyers to push this above 518.41 means some profit taking and this will see our 516.83 and below there is excellent support at 513.67. If they really want to push this back to range bound conditions sellers will encounter support at 512.09 initially and then 509.44 will present excellent support.

ZC [Mar19 Corn]

The Upside Story: We failed to take out initial resistance in the early session today which sits at 383.99. Above here is more positive for March19 Corn and it could quickly go tag 385.23. Finding buyers to hold this level will likely find good resistance at 387.28.

The Downside Story: Inability to hold 383.99 as we are currently experiencing forces us back to initial support which sits at 381.51. If sellers make a run to push this lower expect some secondary support at 380.28 and inability to hold that will force us to seek out excellent support at 378.22.



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About the author


Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at info@tradeguidance.com

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