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Forget Yesterday!


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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Yesterday, here on Inside Futures I posted a piece entitled, "Unfolding Today". I was pointing out how well a handful of commodity markets were doing which hinted loudly that today, would be price positive. Instead, today is down and dirty bearish for virtually every market on the board including the ones I touted yesterday. And below is the list of markets I highlighted.

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Consider what is happening today:

**Cotton prices are up 100 points basis December and trading at 81.95. A close here or higher represents the 2nd highest close since mid-September.

**Soybean prices are up a meager 1 cent but that represents the highest levels since August 9.

**On August 9, March KC wheat closed at $6.24 vs $5.98 that I am looking at right now.

**Palladium is at a new all time high.

**Front month live cattle should they close here or higher would be at their best levels since the final days of October.

**Crude oil is up $.80 a barrel but that is the best the market has been in nearly 3 weeks.

** Jan. soybeans are $9.13 to $9.14 up a few cents for the day and trading at a level not seen since August 9.

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Everything seen above for yesterday, is out the window today. Forget about yesterday. There is weakness everywhere with the Dow down more than 700 points. And as the Dow sinks, it is weighing on all other markets as well.


But in my defense, I also stated this yesterday;


"Yesterday, (Tuesday) the Dow fell 800 points, the yield curve inverted for the first time in a decade, the S&P was under its 200 day moving average and death cross looming large. My lean is the stocks market is going sideways to lower for the next decade. The commodity markets on the other hand are on the cusp of a demand led bull markets."



I see two and only two trades to concentrate on moving forward. One is on the long side of the ledger, the other the short side. And because the bloom is coming off stocks and the unemployment rate is at a 49 year high, I fully expect commodities per se to be on the cusp of demand led bull markets sooner than later.


Drop me a line if you wish to know of the only two trades I would concentrate on moving forward. And dont forget, there is no substitute for timely and accurate information. Which, of course, it one reason to subscribe to Commodity Insite. Check it out at www.commodityinsite.com


The time is 10:24



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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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