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Agris - intraday


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Personally, my favorite is Oats, as all you have to do is compute the direction in conjuncion with the fundamentals and let the trade sit and it delivers.

The intraday grains trader

ZS [Jan19 Soybeans]

The Upside Story: It almost appears like we went up after the China trade news too quickly. We are trying to bounce off 907.99 and that is not looking too good today. Holding this will find resistance at 910.36 and till we go above 911.81, we are not on safe ground. If the dollar miraculously collapses, expect 914.69, then 916.14 and 918.51 all in quick succession.

The Downside Story: Below 907.99 we could be doing some free falling all the way to 888 since there is not much support for Soybean which has gone up on news that is not validated.

ZM [Mar19 Soybean Meal]

The Upside Story: If we hold 316.5 today, expect 318.3 and above there will find some resistance a point higher at 319.3. Intraday gains could be limited on Meal catching a bid at 321.

The Downside Story: If we fail to hold 316.5, look for 315.9 and then 314.9 to hold the downward movement for the day session. Below there, could be a free fall to 309.

ZL [Mar19 Bean Oil]

The Upside Story: There appears to be all kinds of stories from analysts suggesting long positions in Bean Oil. Well, there may be some truth to it as this is a beaten up story for a while now. We need to hold 28.87 today and take this above 28.99 to write home any sort of a success story. Above 28.99 will see 29.09 and above there is smooth sailing to 29.21.

The Downside Story: Below 28.87, we would easily fall to 28.67 initially and below there is free fall to 28 even.

ZW [Mar19 Wheat]

The Upside Story: Remains a mixed bag today as we retraced to initial support in the 516.46 area. If we push this higher today, we will find some resistance at 520.04 and scaling above there expect 521.83. Pushing this higher will run into a wall of resistance at 524.81 for the day session.

The Downside Story: Not holding 516.46 involves profit taking and will find support lower at two key price points during the day session today, once at 514.68.36 and below there at 511.69.

ZC [Mar19 Corn]

The Upside Story: We need to hold 383.86 to make a run higher. If we hold here expect 385.64 to present decent resistance and above there is a bigger exercise by the bulls to take the price above 386.54. Pushing above there could have us find some resistance at 388.01 and that should limit the gains for the day.

The Downside Story: Falling below 383.86 will likely find some support at 382.96 and below there is excellent support at 381.49.



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About the author


Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at info@tradeguidance.com

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