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Softs - daily price analysis


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Intraday price analysis for chosen Softs for Tuesday Dec 04, 2018

1.Sugar # 11 [SB] Expiration Mar19.

The bullish story intraday: Barely moving today while we have initial resistance at 12.95. If we take this out to the upside we will find resistance at 13.01 and blowing past that is more resistance intraday at 13.11.

The bearish story intraday: Dropping below 12.95 as we are doing right now when we are writing this blog, means we will see out support initially at 12.83. If the bears show up to work today, expect prices for the day to find support points at 12.77 and then at 12.67.

2.Coffee 'C' [KC] Expiration Mar19.

The bullish story intraday: Expecting range bound price action today between 107.05 and 108.95. Above 108.95 has some resistance intraday at 109.90 and if encountering bids at this level will limit gains for the day at 111.47. In the unlikely event that we find a buying story above this level today, expect us to limit our gains at 112.13.

The bearish story intraday: Failing to hold 107.05 does not look too good and may quickly tag 106.10. Below there has nice support for the day at 106.10 which should limit the days downward move but if prices were to push lower below here, expect 104.53 to pose a wall of support.

3.Cotton # 2 [CT] Expiration Mar19.

The bullish story intraday: Weve been hovering around 80.30 all night long. Taking this level out to the upside will likely give us 80.85 initially and if the bids pour in, expect us to find resistance at 81.75 to limit the intraday gains.

The bearish story intraday: If traders do not like 80.30 and want it lower today, they will run into excellent support at 79.20. If the bears roll up their sleeves in an attempt to push this any lower we will encounter some additional support at 78.65 failing which we have a wall of support for the day session in the 77.75 area.

4.Cocoa [CC] Expiration Mar19.

The bullish story intraday: We are stuck between support and resistance intraday. Holding 2184 is very important and this will run into a wall of resistance at 2218. If we have movement in the underlying currency that is supportive of prices at this level, we will run into some resistance and profit taking on longs at 2235 and limit our gains intraday at 2263.

The bearish story intraday: Failing 2184 today will easily target 2167 initially and profit taking may likely hold us here. If sellers persist, expect us to hold the losses at 2139.

5.Orange Juice [OJ] Expiration Jan19.

The bullish story intraday: OJ Is lacking volume today to take it out of range bound conditions. Above 143.76 is good and we will likely see some profit taking at 144.76. If buyers continue with bids, expect us to limit find some resistance at 145.24 initially and then cap intraday gains at 146.07.

The bearish story intraday: Inability to hold initial support at 143.76 is not good for Orange Juice prices. We will encounter selling below here to 143.26 which we have already visited once and below there will likely find some support at 142.43 for the day session.

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About the author


Murali Sarma, Vice President of Business Integrations Inc., is an internationally known commodities analyst, author, trader and business consultant who has demystified commodity trading and introduced numerous futures trading strategies and indicators to traders - professional, non-professional and the novice trader - throughout the world. Murali began his trading career in the pre-dot-com bubble in 1998, electing to seek instruments to trade which had lesser volatility and offered more predictable analysis. From about 1999 to 2002, Murali traded out of the UK and moving to the US after that and working mostly independently with individual traders while learning from some of the best analysts and traders. While not being formally certified as a commodities trader, Murali preferred to hone in on his analysis and trading skills versus adding academically to his credentials. Murali believes that is isn’t about being right or wrong on your calls, it is about making money!

Murali has helped several traders become successful over the last 10+ years of active futures trading and has a strong following of traders who like to seek out opportunities in the futures markets on a daily basis versus following the old “buy & hold” investing adage. While not being opposed to switching hats and becoming an “investor” every so often with swing trades in the equities markets, Murali prefers to trade what he can see on charts using multiple timeframes and handcrafted indicators suited for all types of markets. Murali excels in trading sideways and choppy markets with a scalping style of being in-out of intraday markets when there is no defined trend, and on most other days prefers trading to his own computed target levels during the intraday timeframe, while following the trend.

In recent months, Murali has started a Twitter based alert service for intraday futures traders who like to trade commodities and index futures, and elected to blog post his daily analysis in commodities like WTI Crude & Gold and index future instruments like YM, NQ, ES & RTY. You may contact him via his email at info@tradeguidance.com

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