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This weekend should be market moving one way or the other. Sunday evening could be interesting. President Trump will be meeting with President Xi. It is my thought that a window of opportunity will present itself. Trump, I believe, wants a deal. Xi I believe needs a deal but doesn't want to look like he needs one. If a verbal agreement is struck, it could offer a rally in beans. It is my belief that any rallies need to be sold. It is important to look at the 2019 prices as well. Nov 2019 at 940. Looks rich to me. The weather overall in SA remains good. The Brazilian is making progress. Actually record pace. This will allow beans to move as early as January. It is important to note that Chinese bean stocks are very high at present. There is a general slowing of imports due to this. In addition ASW (swine fever) continues to expand slowly. There is some concern that it is being under reported. Time will tell. In addition, the black sea region is producing more and more rapeseed and oilseeds in general. This will offer more competition in 2019, and for years to come.

This window will remain open for a bit here. The next questions will be if the US acreage in spring sees a large increase. I am not yet convinced. The Corn Bean ratio will play a big part. Also, perhaps the late crop, if field work has been done to support spring corn acres. I remain committed that corn will gain on soy into the new year. Quantify your risk.

To discuss this or any ideas please call 800 993 5449 or jwalsh@walshtrading.com

" ADOPT THE PACE OF NATURE, HER SECRET IS PATIENCE " RALPH WALDO EMERSON

BE WELL



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About the author


John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.

 

In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.

 

John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.

 

Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449
Email: jwalsh@walshtrading.com

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