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AG TIME Round and Round We Go

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The markets under pressure. The weekend meeting bore no fruit. The President is scheduled to speak with Premier Xi at the end of this month. The reality as I see it is the Chinese will need to make a deal. They wont win a drawn out battle. Trump would like another victory. I question much of what I read. The markets will be volatile. The beans have rallied a lot from their lows. I also question how much more we can rally with a settlement. Some are suggesting ten dollars per bushel. Personally I dont see it. The fundamentals are so bearish regardless of the US/China situation. The harvest here is wrapping up. The planting in SA is rolling. The African Swine Flu is not being talked about. It has hit 50 different areas. Smaller farms so far. Just time now in my opinion til a big player gets hit. The protein is changing. Old habits die hard. Everyone has been paid being long meal on the commercial side. We shall see.

The feedgrains just cant get rolling. The wheat was the downside leader today based on Pakistan wanting to export more. It is my opinion we would remain depressed. It is now my opinion it is not worth pressing shorts here any more. The wheat is due a rally. What happens in the near term with Russia and Ukraine will have an impact. The corn remains lackluster. The Options expire on Friday. The fundamentals remain solid, however there is no catalyst to get corn moving higher. I am losing some confidence in the idea that corn is ok. Perhaps it still is but sooner rather than later would be better.

Thanks for all of the comments. Both agreement and disagreement. Friendly disagreement is always welcome. To discuss ideas or for dialogue 800 993 5449



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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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