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China Surprise....Not a New Pact, Yet...More Production


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Our next USDA report is on December 11 but, it is only Supply/Demand and some traders consider the December report to be the least important number of the year.................The big one will be in January when the USDA throws the kitchen sink at us with winter wheat seeding, final crop production for corn and beans, supply/demand and stocks-in-all-positions as of December 31, 2018....................

The market may start focusing on the end of the month and December deliveries........................Basis levels for corn have had reasons to firm with harvest disruption yet slipped on freight rate drops hence, a wash!..................Present levels suggest that we'll see healthy deliveries on November 30..........................Wheat basis levels are firm enough to question if any of the Toledo stocks get delivered yet, we're not high enough to negate the headaches of dealing with and sorting the receipts with acceptable vomitoxin levels....................The market is keenly monitoring the Argentine and Australian crops as harvest approaches and progresses............................

Field loss is still a possibility with corn as Mother Nature is becoming more uncooperative with harvesting the final 10 to 20% of the crop.................Too much rain is a double edged sword in the Plains as wheat acres wiped out are more than compensated for with better yield potential with what's still standing.................................

The November report is history!..................The surprises came in world figures as Chinese wheat production was increased 4 1/2 million metric tonnes and Chinese corn production was increased 31 million metric tonnes from the October projections..........................As Gomer Pyle says "surprise. surprise!"

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited

within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce


Walsh Trading
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Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at sbruce@walshtrading.com.
 
 
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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