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Grain Express

November 8, 2018

Corn (December)

Yesterdays Close:December corn futures finished of a cent lower yesterday, trading in a range of 2 cents.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 701,500 metric tons for 2018/2019, within the range of expectations. Attention today will be on the USDA report which will be released at 11am cst. Estimates for yields come in near 180 bushels per acre, putting total production at 14.721 billion bushels. Carryout estimates are near 1.773 billion bushels. We do have a bearish seasonal trade that starts today. If you had sold December corn on November 8th and bought back on November 19th, you would have been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years, the average profit on that has been 11 cents.


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Soybeans (January)

Yesterdays Close:January soybeans finished yesterdays session down 5 cents, trading in a range of 11 cents.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 388,400 metric tons for 2018 and 3,000 for 2019/2020, another dismal number. All eyes will now turn towards this mornings USDA report. expectations are for yields to come in near 52.9 bushels per acre, putting production near 4.676 billion bushels. Carryout estimates are coming in near 898 million bushels. We have been leaning on the short side to start the week but will neutralize that up as the technical landscape has shifted (see technical section below). Keep in mind that the big pop last week was on the back of hot air, most of which was short covering. The market has not given that back, and that should be a caution flag for bears.


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Wheat (December)

Yesterdays Close: December wheat futures finished yesterdays session down 1 cents, trading in a range of 7 cents.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 661,200 metric tons, a notch above the top end of expectations (the recent trend). Estimates for ending stocks in todays USDA report are coming in near 958 million bushels. We continue to watch the US dollar very closely as it will have a direct impact on the export market. If the dollar continues to soften up, we would expect to see that put a soft floor in the market. A bearish seasonal trade starts today for Chicago, March wheat. If you had sold on November 8th and bought back on December 11th, you would have been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years, the average gain has been about 13 cents.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.



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