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Markets Remain Stable Prior to WASDE Report


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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for November 8, 2018!

Grain Markets showed limited price movement, with corn and soybean futures with little change as investors looked ahead to this morning's monthly crop forecasts from the USDA, while traders watch for more indications about a possible fallout in trade relations between Washington and Beijing. Wheat farmers rush to sow their fields before wintry temperatures make planting difficult.

Want to Know More about today's USDA Supply and Demand report? Find out what the potential highlights may be, how USDA may address yields, and more in our free webinar, here.

Average estimates for today's report figures corn yield at 180.0 bpa, with total production of 14.721 billion bushels. Soybean yield is estimated at 52.9 bpa, with total production of 4.676 bb. Ending stocks are estimated at .958 for wheat, 1.773 for corn, and .898 for soybeans. The report will be released today at 11:00 AM CST.

Weekly Export Sales Report will be released this morning at 7:30 AM CST. Trade estimates corn export sales between 600,000-900,000, soybean exports sales between 400,000-700,000, wheat export sales around 300,000-600,000, soymeal at 200,000-450,000 and soyoil at 8,000-30,000.

Basis Bids for corn shipped by barge to terminals continued to slide (down 4 cents since Tuesday), reflecting falling costs for barge freight and rising supplies of corn arriving at the Gulf terminals.

China's National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) stated corn output in 2017 was 215.9 million tonnes. Surprisingly, the new data showed last year's crop was 20 percent larger at 259 million tonnes. This new data sharply increases Chinas planted acreage for corn last year from 35.5 million hectares to 42.4 million hectares. Yield was up slightly to 6.1 tonnes per hectare (6.09 tonnes per hectare expected).

Managed Money Funds were estimated long 45,300 corn contracts, short 44,300 soybean contracts, short 32,700 wheat contracts, long 32,900 soymeal contracts and short 54,000 soyoil contracts.

Russian Agriculture Ministry cut its grain export forecast for 2018/19 to 35 million tonnes. Last report, the ministry expected Russia to harvest 109 million tonnes of grain in 2018 and export 38-39 million tonnes for 2018/19 season with 33-34 million tonnes being wheat.

Russia plans to supply frozen poultry to China by the end of 2018, ending several years of waiting for meat producers to gain access to Chinas meat market. The opening of Chinas market will help develop Russian poultry production, which is now stagnating as markets such as Japan, South Korea and Europe remain closed said Sergei Yushin, President of the Russian Meat Association.

Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.54 and select down 2.89. The CME Feeder Index is at 152.88. Pork cutout value was down 1.33.


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About the author


Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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