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Markets Brace for Big Numbers on USDA Reports

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Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for October 9, 2018!

Grain Market Traders continued seeing wet weather across key corn and soybean states, delaying the harvesting of both crops. The rains have boosted soil moisture for hard red winter wheat planting in central and southern U.S. Plains. Forecasts show drier weather beginning this weekend allowing farmers to resume harvesting.

U.S. Wheat Futures dropped 10 cents due to technical selling, as a stronger dollar created resistance for U.S. wheat exports. The wet forecast also created downside pressure on prices as well.

Crop Progress Report will be released this afternoon at 2 p.m. CDT (postponed from Columbus Day Holiday). Trade is looking for corn harvest at 32-35% complete (26% last week) and soybean harvest at 32-35% complete (23% last week). Winter wheat planting expected at 57-59% complete (48% last week).

USDA October Supply/Demand Report will be released on Thursday, Oct. 11, at 11 AM CDT. Estimates have corn ending stocks at 1.919 billion bushels (1.774 billion bushels in September), soybean ending stocks at 0.898 billion bushels (0.845 billion bushels in September) and wheat ending stocks estimated at 0.950 billion bushels (0.935 billion bushels in September).

U.S. Cash Grain watched spot basis bids for corn and soybeans sharply rise at processors and elevators around the U.S. Midwest after the wet weather stalled harvests around the nation according to grain dealers.

President Trump is expected to announce the lifting of a federal ban on summer sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline this afternoon ahead of his trip to Iowa, according to two sources familiar with the planning of the event. The summer ban was put in place as an anti-smog measure, though recent studies have shown its environmental benefits are limited.

Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 7,000 corn contracts, 5,500 wheat, and 2,500 soymeal in yesterday's trade. They were estimated buyers of 3,000 soybeans, and 5,000 soyoil.

African Swine Fever cases were confirmed in the Northeastern province of Liaoning. The outbreak was confirmed on pig farms in several villages, killing 93 pigs and infecting 334 more. China also banned imports of pigs, wild boars and products from Bulgaria following an outbreak of African swine fever was confirmed in the country.

December Live Hogs traded slightly lower closing down $0.05 to $57.55. The next level of resistance remains at $59.15 with support at $53.82.

December Live Cattle closed $0.23 higher closing below critical resistance at the $119 level, support remains at $116.62.

Dressed Beef Values were mixed with choice down 0.04 and select up 0.07. The CME Feeder Index is at 158.15. Pork cutout value was down 0.63.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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