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AG TIME - Production

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The USDA will release production estimates on Thursday. This report will be of importance to the soy complex, in my opinion. The expectation is for a larger yield, approaching a record. The carry will continue to rise to unprecedented levels if the numbers continue to climb. The global picture remains much the same. The Brazilian is way ahead on planting with some key areas as much as 30% planted. In addition, the cash sales there are well ahead of the norm. As much as 27% of the beans is estimated forward contracted. The norm is approx 4%. This is important because the Brazilian is expecting a large crop. In addition, they are perceiving the current price as a good one. This has been my thought. I have suggested selling Nov 2019 above 920 level. This is currently the case. It is my belief these prices will look rich come next year. There could be a chance here to have two hedging cycles. This assumes the China spat is ultimately worked through.

The Corn was weak yet again. There is no concern at present while harvest is rolling. The President is speaking tomorrow in Iowa. There is a thought he could mandate E15 production and sales 12 months out of the year. This could provide a market spark. The corn exports remain very strong. In addition, the ethanol exports as well as DDG exports remain very high. This continues to fuel the friendly corn market. The numbers on Thursday are important for corn. The market anticipates an increase in yield. If confirmed, this could present resistance to higher prices. However, a flat sideways report could be the spark the market has waited on.

Thank you for all the commentary. Feel free to contact for a review of market ideas. 800 993 5449 or



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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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