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AG TIME Trade Deal Day

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The markets rallied today. the focus was the new trade deal(s) between the US and Canada. Also the deal with Mexico. Another victory for the Trump administration. Now on to Europe and the China situation. This may take a bit of time. Especially the China portion. But who knows. The report Friday added more to the soy balance. In my opinion regardless of the China trade spat and when it wraps up, the US and the globe for that matter has too many beans. In addition, the Chinese financial situation is slowing. This doesnt bode well for long term demand increases. There are some major macro changes, yet it seems to me most people want to focus on micro thoughts. The prices are reflective of the real carry situation. Not the fact that the US is fighting with China. I will say again, in my opinion the meal market shows no indication of a bull market. This is a created perception, plain and simple, in my opinion. Follow the money. The weather will be key in the next 10 days. Then the USDA report. The yield will be key here. Do we add yield.

The Corn had a nice day, rejecting Fridays activity. The report out of the way the market will eye the weather the next couple of weeks. The weather can offer support. The demand can offer support. The global weather will be key in the short term. The long run will need to watch the overall corn vs bean relationship. This will dictate the acreage next year. It is my thought the corn will appreciate here. The question is how much. The weather for feedgrains around the world is less than ideal. This will need to be monitored on a continual basis.

Thank you for all the comments. To discuss long term opportunities call 800 993 5449



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About the author

John Walsh, President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

John began his career in the futures industry in 1986 at privately held firm, Barnes and Company. Barnes and Company was known for its presence at the Board of Trade, particularly in the agricultural sector. From Barnes, John held positions at the privately held firm, Argus and then at Continental Grain. During his time there, Continental Grain was one of the largest clearing firms in the world. Continental Grain had, and continues to maintain, extensive holdings in the cash cattle, poultry, swine, and agriculture industries. At Continental Grain, John had various responsibilities including working for the Options Group and the Risk Management Group where he serviced clients located all over the world.


In 1996, John left Continental Grain to found Walsh Trading, Inc., currently a registered Independent Introducing Broker (IIB) and an NFA member with the ability to clear at multiple, futures clearing merchants at the benefit of its clients. John’s focus at Walsh Trading has been on hiring and cultivating talented individuals and building relationships throughout the industry. Walsh Trading services some of the largest companies in the world, in their respective fields, as well as individual investors with a commitment to always putting the needs of its customers first.


John trades all markets, but concentrates his efforts in the agricultural sector, more specifically in the relationships revolving around the soybean crush. His trading methodology is based on fundamentals and a personally designed technical system.


Contact John
Phone: 312-208-8837 or 800-993-5449

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