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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.14.18)

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Grain Express

September 14, 2018


Corn, Soybeans, Wheat

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Corn (December)

Yesterdays Close: December corn futures finished yesterdays session down 2 cents, trading in a range of 7 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 10,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: Corn continued to work lower yesterday as bulls continue to digest the USDA report and throw in the towel on what seems like a hopeless market. We will continue to keep a very close eye on money flow now that the USDA report is behind us. Yesterdays export sales came in at 171,600 metric tons of old crop, and 774,200 metric tons for new crop. There was also a flash sale of 142,876 metric tons of new crop corn to Costa Rica.

Technicals: On the technical side of things, the market continues to linger at significant support, both psychologically and technically significant. If the bulls can defend 349-352 to round out the week, perhaps that could spur some short covering in the near future. A close below our support pocket will not be pressuring funds to take profits on their short position. If we continue to breakdown, that puts the market in uncharted territory, using the continuous chart, we see the next meaningful support pocket coming in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Soybeans (November)

Yesterdays Close: November soybean futures finished yesterdays session down 4 cents, trading in a range of 14 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,500 contracts.

Fundamentals: The market was little changed yesterday as prices continue to search for an equilibrium near the bottom end of the range. In yesterdays report and in our weekly 2 Minute Drill, we discussed the near-term opportunity to the buy side. The market had been expecting a very bearish bean report and that was reflected by price on Tuesday and early morning Wednesday. In our minds the bearish news was priced in, making a neutral report (which is what we got) friendly. Yesterdays export sales came in at 14,600 metric tons of old crop, and 693,500 metric tons of new crop. The USDA also announced flash sales of 108,010 metric tons to Mexico, and 120,000 metric tons to Unknown. More times than not in the past, Unknown has been China. There were headlines earlier in the week that the U.S. and China want to continue talks, there is no date set, but we would not be surprised to see one follow in the next 1-2 weeks.

Technicals: Technically speaking, the market is trying to form a triple bottom, which is also a reason we like giving the long side a chance here with a relatively tight leash. The bulls MUST defend....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Wheat (December)

Yesterdays Close: December wheat futures finished yesterdays session down 9 cents, trading in a range of 14 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

Fundamentals: Wheat has continued to be under pressure, marking their lowest price since the middle of July. The fundamental picture isnt the most bullish thing, but there may be some short-term opportunity for active market participants (see technical section below). Yesterdays weekly export sales report came in at 387,600 metric tons, this was inline with expectations, nothing to write home about.

Technicals: Short wheat has been one of our biggest convictions of the year over the last month, but for the bulls, there looks to be light at the end of the tunnel for the very near term. In our weekly 2 Minute Drill yesterday we laid out the near-term bullish case. We noted significant support coming in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

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About the author

Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.



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