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Trading the Noise - Blue Line Morning Express

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Morning Express

As you know, our whole report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:00 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 5 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold, Natural Gas and the 10-year.

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E-mini S&P (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2853.75, down 1.50

Fundamentals:In this more or less quiet week, concerns that the worsening situation in Turkey could have a contagion effect on the Eurozone, particularly lenders, and other parts of the world grabbed precedent over the last 24 hours. We believe that low volume this week has exacerbated moves in currencies and equity markets. The Euro began seeing strong waves of selling late in the morning yesterday and overnight reached the lowest level in a year as its tests our FX Rundown major three-star support. Still, we see the move in the currency as extremely technical; our FX Rundown major three-star resistance at 1.1646 held and encouraged the failure. As fears in the overnight are showing signs of dissipating this morning, the focus will shift domestically with a big read on CPI. We have seen this many times recently, where overnight weakness becomes a buying opportunity during U.S hours. What will we need to see in order for this to happen? There are ongoing fears that inflation will kick into high gear and this will force the Federal Reserve to hike rates at a quicker pace. Despite all the noise, the Federal Reserve is still in the drivers seat. If todays Core CPI is in line or softer than the expected +0.2% MoM and +2.3% YoY we could easily see the S&P snap back and trade back near resistance at 2864.50. Now, our call to see a test of the all-time highs before the end of the week has been negated with the move below critical support which we will speak about in the Technical section below.

Technicals:The strong technicals remain well intact. In fact, major three-star support at...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (September)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 66.81, down 0.13

Fundamentals:After an unenthusiastic finish to yesterdays session, turmoil in Turkey took a turn for the worse which encouraged global risk aversion. While Crude Oil has already seen pressure this week due to China announcing they will ramp up production and exploration and a bearish EIA inventory report, the global fears on Turkey seemingly brought a final dagger of selling to a massive technical level which we will discuss in the Technical section below. However, sentiment on Crude Oil specifically is shifting this morning after the IEA said that the recent cooling of the market on short-term fundamentals is unlikely to last. Furthermore, they gave a steadfast reminder that sanctions on Iran will ultimately reduce spare capacity to a potentially dangerous level (our words, not theirs). Baker Hughes Rig Count is due at noon CT and it is important to remember that estimated U.S production has dipped by 200,000 bpd over the last two weekly reports.

Technicals:Crude Oil is working its way to be a dollar from the overnight low. An overnight low that held major three-star support perfectly but would have run stops that were just below the recent low and encourage pain to overleveraged longs; this is exactly what the market likes to do before reversing. For this reason, and many others, we are now ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1219.9, down 1.1

Fundamentals:The Dollar has gained against all major currencies except for the Yen which has seen a safe-haven bid. While a stronger Dollar does not bode well for Gold, it has held ground very well and it is nice to see some, even minor, safe haven aspects show up. There will be a tremendous emphasis on todays U.S CPI read. The Core number is what we watch most closely and its expected to come in at +0.2% MoM and +2.3% YoY. Given that it has battled back from last nights weakness, we expect an inline number to not disrupt that battle and prices could continue to elevate a bit into the weekend. However, if this number comes in soft, we expect buyers to come to the party today and take Gold through first key technical resistance. There is an ongoing fear that inflation will begin to run hot and it will force the Federal Reserve to hike at a quicker pace; if this fear can be put to rest for now today, Gold has quite a bit of recovering to do in the near-term.

Technicals:The metal has battled at the 1220.1-1222 level and we must see a close above here at a minimum today and a failure to do that would be downright disappointing. First key resistance comes in at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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