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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals


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Grain Express

August 10, 2018


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Corn (December)

Yesterdays Close: December corn futures finished yesterdays session 2 cents lower, trading in a range of 6 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 7,000 contracts on the day.


Fundamentals: Today is the day, we will get updated data from the USDA at 11 am cst. Below are the estimates.


Corn Yield

Average estimate: 176.2 bushels per acre


Corn Production

Range of estimates: 14.210-14.750 billion bushels

Average estimate: 14.411 billion bushels

July report: 14.230


Corn Carryout (2017/2018)

Average estimate: 2.015 billion bushels

July report: 2.027 billion bushels


Corn Carryout (2018/2019)

Average estimate: 1.636 billion bushels

July report: 1.552 billion bushels


Technicals: Not much has changed on the technical landscape over the last 24 hours. The market tested and held technical support yesterday, we have defined that pocket as 379 -382 . This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 50-day moving average, and previously important price points. A break and close below here will likely encourage some long liquidation from recent buyers. If the bulls can defend this level, they remain in control. On the resistance side, 389 is the first barrier, but there are several barriers from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


Soybeans (November)

Yesterdays Close: November soybean futures finished yesterdays session down 8 cents, trading in a range of 12 cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 contracts on the day.


Fundamentals: We will get new news today in the form of a USDA report, released at 11 am cst. Barring any shocking trade headlines, everything else is background noise today. Below are the estimates.


Soybean Yield

Average estimate: 49.6 bushels per acre


Soybean Production

Range of estimates: 4.345-4.580 billion bushels

Average estimate: 4.425 billion bushels

July report: 4.310


Soybean Carryout (2017/2018)

Average estimate: 463 million bushels

July report: 465 million bushels


Soybean Carryout (2018/2019)

Average estimate: 648 million bushels

July report: 580 million bushels


Technicals: Technical resistance was tested again yesterday, and again held. A friendly USDA report would surely be enough to break down the barrier and spark short covering. 914 -9-15 is the pocket we have had listed, but there is also a level at 923 that is arguably just as important. This represents the June 23rd, 2017 lows and the breakdown point on June 19th of this year where we saw the market break as much as 63 cents in that one session; previous support now becomes....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


Wheat (September)

Yesterdays Close: Wheat futures finished yesterdays session down 7 cents, trading in a range of 12 cents on the day. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.


Fundamentals: We will finally get some news on the wires that isnt weather related. The USDA will report their monthly report at 11 am cst. Below are the estimates.


All Wheat Production

Range of estimates: 1.700-1.910 billion bushels

Average estimate: 1.857 billion bushels

July report: 1.881


Wheat Carryout (2017/2018)

Average estimate: 1.100 billion bushels

July report: 1.100 billion bushels


Wheat Carryout (2018/2019)

Average estimate: 967 million bushels

July report: 985 million bushels


Technicals: Wheat has been in consolidation mode for much of the week as the market lingers around previous resistance. 570 is a pivot point for us, A conviction close above opens the door for a big leg higher and a conviction close below opens the door for long liquidation. On the support side of things....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.


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About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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