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Corporate Earnings Reports Remain Strong

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August 9, 2018


U.S. stock index futures are higher, as the second quarter earnings season winds down on a firm note.

The producer price index was unchanged in July when an increase of .2% was expected, and the producer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, were up .1% in July when a .2% increase was anticipated.

The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits remains near historic lows.

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims fell 6,000 to 213,000 in the week ended August 4, which compares to consensus expectations for initial claims to be 220,000.

The 9:00 central time June wholesale trade report is estimated to be unchanged.

Of the 440 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results so far, 78.6% of them have surpassed analysts expectations.

U.S. stock index futures are performing well, with the S&P 500 close to all-time highs in spite of the ongoing global trade uncertainties.

The still relatively low global interest rate environment and the mostly stronger than estimated U.S. corporate earnings reports remain supportive.


The U.S. dollar is higher due to prospects of a fed funds rate hike in September and possibly another one in December.

Yesterday the British pound fell below $1.29 for the first time in almost a year on continuing worries that the U.K. will leave the E.U. without a trade deal.

In addition, there is talk that it will be a long time before the Bank of England will be in a position to increase its key interest rate again.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are lower in spite of higher crude oil prices.

The Canadian dollar was pressured by news that housing starts in Canada fell 16.2% in July from June.


The Treasury will auction 30 year bonds today.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committees September 26 meeting is 96%, which compares to 98% yesterday.

Also, there are increasing probabilities of an additional rate hike in December.

In spite of mostly higher prices today, the longer term trend for futures is lower, especially for the thirty year Treasury bonds.


September 18 S&P 500

Support 2852.00 Resistance 2866.00

September 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 94.780 Resistance 95.230

September 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.16010 Resistance 1.16580

September 18 Japanese Yen

Support .90100 Resistance .90580

September 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .76620 Resistance .77030

September 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7409 Resistance .7460

September 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 142^16 Resistance 143^8

December 18 Gold

Support 1216.0Resistance 1228.0

September 18 Copper

Support 2.7500 Resistance 2.8200

September 18 Crude Oil

Support 66.31 Resistance 67.48

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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