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Are We There Yet?

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Are we there yet? Wheat is testing the lows of last month's move while beans and corn are making new lows because of the weather and trade war fears....The talking heads on television are touting that ten year lows are unheard of and the end of the world as we know it is here.....the merchants of misery are doing their thing! There's no real reason for a speculator to buy this right now but we are entering territory where end users will be taking coverage yet, not for any long time frame....In the old days when feeders were bullish they might have 6 months of use covered and if they were bearish they might be only covered for two's a mortal sin to not have anything to feed the grain consuming unit or to shut down the wheat mill for lack of wheat....we are getting closer to the point where users will back up the truck and say to keep it coming but that typically happens when the big long, the farmer, is scrambling to find storage space to house his crop...The last 20% of harvest, where winter wheat harvest is at, typically produces the most pressure! Bulls have to time it right to be long at 99.1 % complete! No one is that good so we should see lots of buying interest at 4.60 to 4.80 WU.........Same thing for corn and buying interest should be steep at 3.30 to 3.40 CU.......Maximum storage rates jump to 8 cents/bushel/month from 5 cents on the December 2019 corn contract and the November 2019 bean contract.......

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
312 985 0156
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Walsh Trading
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About the author

Steve Bruce comes from the cash grain side of the market working for General Mills at the ChicagoBoard of Trade in the summers in the 1970's calling the country to buy wheat at cheap basis levels and with Illinois Grain learning the barge trade. He then spent the 80's , 90's and 00's servicing commercial clients with Geldermann and Man Financial from the trading floor of the Chicago Board of Trade shared market perception via print and electronic media. Steve takes a fundamental approach to market analysis. He completed his undergrad at Marquette and MBA at De Paul. Steve believes in the free market, Chicago School of monetary policy, and less government involvement and intervention in the grain markets. He is risk adverse but emphasizes spread trades for optimal hedging profitability. Steve can be contacted at 312 985 0156 or 888 391 7894 or email him at
Contributing author since 06/14/2018 

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