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USDA REPORT FOR 6/29/18


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Futures trading involve the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers and Hedge Ideas 1 week trial offer for $50

Attention Corn & Soybean Producers:

One week trial offer for $50 on learning about the best way to hedge.Inmy opinion, my strategy is the best I have seen since I became a member in 1976 trading corn and soybeans for my own account.

Are you tired of listening to the same BULL ****, and services that do not have a plan if the market goes down instead? Hedge means to take risk off the table, and my service has all producers 100% hedged and they do have most of the upside unhedged (if we can rally for whatever reason). Hedge with a Pro and option expert who has been trading grains for 40+ years.

This service mission is to make producers and end users self-directed, and not need information provided by any service. All of my subscribers were seeking to hedge in a better way than all the services they had in the past were providing. When I bought my membership/seat in 1976, nobody would help or educate metowhat works for them, and what does not. I learned from the losers what does not work by listening to what they said and how they traded. They taught me what NOT to do. You, like my subscribers, have already learned what not to do, now you want to learn what works well for you, no matter up, down, or sideways market.

As I have said every year "Think what you want but always have a hedge on". Bull or bear, we use the same strategies, but each self-directed person reflects what they think in the strike prices they select and use. No herd following here. It is the opposite, when everyone is buying and the price is near significant resistance, we are improving our hedge by capturing more income when cheap to do so, and on price breaks when everyone is selling and the market is near contract lows, we are improving our hedges buying back our upside when cheap to do so.

Hedge means to take risk off the table, not add to it. How is it possible for hedge service to recommend buying back your corn when above $4.00, please tell me how that is a hedge? We were hedging and improving our hedges then.

Simple easy to understand option strategies give my producers the odds greatly in their favor and gives them control of the protection they need and the upside potential they want. Mindset is also on the forefront every year, live and hedge in the half full instead of the half empty. Learn how to read the charts clearly and easy, to help locate long-term significant support and resistance, to help determine how much protection you need, and what upside objective is reasonable to achieve.

Corn Planted Acreage Down 1 Percent from 2017

Soybean Acreage Down 1 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Up 4 Percent

All Cotton Acreage Up 7 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2018 is estimated at 89.1 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acres are down or unchanged in 31 of the 48 estimating States. Area harvested for grain, at 81.8 million acres, is down 1 percent from last year. Soybean planted area for 2018 is estimated at 89.6 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 14 of the 31 estimating States.

All wheat planted area for 2018 is estimated at 47.8 million acres, up 4 percent from 2017. This represents the second lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919. The 2018 winter wheat planted area, at 32.7 million acres, is up less than 1 percent from last year and up slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 23.2 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 5.89 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.62 million acres are White Winter.

Area planted to other spring wheat for 2018 is estimated at 13.2 million acres, up 20 percent from 2017. Of this total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Durum planted area for 2018 is estimated at 1.89 million acres, down 18 percent from the previous year.

Crop Comments Corn: The 2018 corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 89.1 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Growers expect to harvest 81.8 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from last year. Farmers responding to the survey indicated that 98 percent of the intended corn acreage had been planted at the time of the interview, slightly higher than the 10-year average. Record low planted acreage is estimated in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, while record high planted acreage is estimated in Oregon. By April 15, producers had planted 3 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 3 percentage points behind last year and 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By April 22, producers had planted 5 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 10 percentage points behind last year and 9 percentage points behind the 5-year average. All States were at or behind their 5-year average except Texas, which had planted 65 percent, 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By April 29, producers had planted 17 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 15 percentage points behind last year and 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Iowa, the largest corn-producing State, had planted 17 percent of their corn acreage by April 29, eight percentage points behind last year and 10 percentage points behind the 5-year average.

Three percent of the Nations corn acreage had emerged by April 29, five percentage points behind last year and 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. By May 6, producers had planted 39 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 6 percentage points behind last year and 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Eight percent of the Nations corn acreage had emerged by May 6, six percentage points behind both last year and the 5-year average. By May 13, producers had planted 62 percent of the Nations corn, 6 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the 5 year average. Twenty-eight percent of the Nations corn acreage had emerged by May 13, one percentage point behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average.

By May 20, producers had planted 81 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 1 percentage point behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. Fifty percent of the Nations corn acreage had emerged by May 20, one percentage point behind last year but 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By May 27, producers had planted 92 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 2 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Ninety-six percent of Iowas corn acreage was planted by May 27, equal to last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average.

Seventy-two percent of the Nations corn acreage had emerged by May 27, two percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As of May 27, seventy-nine percent of the Nations corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with 65 percent rated in these two categories at the same time last year. By June 3, producers had planted 97 percent of the Nations corn acreage, 2 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Eighty-six percent of the Nations corn had emerged by June 3, two percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

As of June 24, seventy-seven percent of the Nations corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with 67 percent rated in these two categories at the same time last year. Ninety-two percent of this years corn acreage was planted with biotechnology seed varieties, unchanged from last year. Biotechnology seed includes traits for insect resistance (Bt), herbicide resistance, or stacked gene which contains traits for both herbicide and insect resistance.

Soybeans: The 2018 soybean planted area is estimated at 89.6 million acres, down 1 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is down or unchanged in 14 of the 31 major producing States. Area for harvest, forecast at 88.9 million acres, is down 1 percent from 2017.

Nationwide, 2 percent of the soybean acreage was planted by April 22, three percentage points behind last year but equal to the 5-year average. Planting was most advanced in the Delta at that time, with Mississippi at 30 percent, Louisiana at 26 percent, and Arkansas at 21 percent planted, respectively. On May 6, fifteen percent of the soybeans were planted, 2 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. By May 13, ten percent of the Nation's soybean acreage had emerged, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

Nationally, 47 percent of the soybean acreage was emerged by May 27, thirteen percentage points ahead of last year and 15 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By June 17, ninety-seven percent of the soybean acreage was planted with 90 percent emerged. Producers planted 94 percent of the 2018 soybean acreage to herbicide resistant seed varieties, unchanged from 2017.

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The markets covered daily are 2017 & 2018 Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat.

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About the author


Currently a member of The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a floor broker and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). I started my career in 1973 on The Chicago Mercantile Exchange trading floor working for a major firm. Three years later I purchased my first membership and began what would become a thirteen-year commitment to trading soybeans for my own account on the trading floor. I began trading options on futures since their inception in Chicago about twenty years ago; doing so, I traded in various pits on the trade floor. 

One of the major lessons that I have learned from all my years of experience is that knowledge is an important condition for the possibility of successful trading. Knowledge gives you a better chance to succeed by eliminating obvious mistakes: with it, you will never find yourself shamefully uttering, “If I only took the time to learn”.  
         
I want to save you from such regrets by teaching you where the danger is, what it looks like, and how to go around it, while still keeping an eye on your destination of success. In short, I will teach you how to combat error with knowledge.
       
My mission is to educate you, giving you my 45 years experience, wisdom, and knowledge from which you will then be able to use and benefit from at will.

I know what will help you make money, and I know what will insure failure. Use my services and prevent, “If I only knew”.  
  

Howard Tyllas

Futures trading involves the substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not mean future results.

If you have a question or comment, email me dailynumbers@futuresflight.com

Visit my website www.futuresflight.com

                                                 

                        

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