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FOMC Statement Today


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June 13, 2018

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher due to speculation of possible increased merger and acquisition activity.

The producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted .5% in May from a month earlier, which compares to expectations of a .3% increase in overall prices.

The producer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy sectors, was up .3% in May from the prior month, which compares to the estimate of a .2% increase.

The June Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations report will be released at 9:00. Last months report came in at 2%.

Traders appear to be gradually shifting their focus of attention more toward the still bullish overall accommodative global interest rate policies and away from the geopolitical worries.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency continues to be supported by the belief that the European Central Bank at its policy meeting on Thursday will debate the end of its quantitative easing program.

The euro is higher even though industrial production in the euro zone fell more sharply than expected in April. The European Union's statistics agency said output of factories, mines and utilities was .9% lower in April than in March. Economists estimated that output would fall .7%.

The U.K. May consumer price index increased .4%, as anticipated.

The Bank of Japan will hold its regularly scheduled policy meeting on Friday.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two day policy meeting today and is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year.

The FOMC will release a statement at 1:00 central time followed by a press conference at 1:30.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Fed today is 96%, which compares to 95% yesterday.

Although geopolitical events will inevitably develop from time to time, which will likely produce short periods of flight to quality buying, the main trend for futures is lower.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 18 S&P 500

Support 2778.00 Resistance 2797.00

June 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 93.510 Resistance 94.070

June 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.17210 Resistance 1.18050

June 18 Japanese Yen

Support .90200 Resistance .90780

June 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .76550 Resistance .77170

June 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7542 Resistance .7617

September 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 142^4 Resistance 143^12

August 18 Gold

Support 1291.0Resistance 1308.0

July 18 Copper

Support 3.2100 Resistance 3.2750

July 18 Crude Oil

Support 65.23 Resistance 66.77

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For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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