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Daily Grain Market Update (4.16.18)


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CORN (May)

Last Weeks Close:May corn futures were 3 cents lower on the week, this after trading in a range of 7 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought 31,540 futures contracts, this extends their net long position to 169,785 futures. Keep in mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd-April 10th.

Fundamentals: Corn prices opened the Sunday night session under pressure despite snow moving through parts of the corn belt and the possibility for more throughout the week. This wintery weather in April has some producers sitting on their hands at a time where they would typically be getting some field work done. There will be delays in getting out of the blocks, but the market seems to have much of that priced in at the moment. Planting progress will be released after the close today, that is expected to come in at 5% complete.

Technicals: May corn has made itself back towards our technical support pocket which we had defined last week as 379 -382 . This pocket represents recent lows, the 50-day moving average, and a key Fibonacci retracement level. We continue to believe that this pocket represents a buying opportunity on the first test. A failure to hold support could encourage some long liquidation from the funds. On the resistance side of things, theres not a whole lot in the way until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

SOYBEANS (May)

Last Weeks Close:May soybean futures traded 17 cents higher last week, this after trading in a range of 29 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed that funds were net sellers of 2,890 futures, this puts their net long position right at 169,539 (identical to corn). Keep I mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd- April 10th.

Fundamentals:If we start to see delays in corn planting extend, we could start to see some acres shift from corn to beans. It is still too early to suggest that is a probability, but it is certainly a possibility at this point in time and should be noted. Harvest in Brazil is starting to pick up, they are estimated to be 25% complete. We have the NOPA crush report this morning; expectations are for 164.15-176.20 million bushels, with the average estimate being 168.247 million bushels. We will continue to keep a close eye on the soybean meal market, as it could be a catalyst in price action.

Technicals:May soybeans gave up some gains on Friday but made strides on the week. We started shifting our near-term bias last week from bearish to bullish on this price action. The market is relatively quiet in the early morning trade so the floor open will be key in setting the tone. First support this morning comes in from 1047 -1052 , a close below this pocket would shift our bias. If the bulls can defend this support pocket, we would expect to see a run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

WHEAT (May)

Last Weeks Close: May wheat futures traded 2 cents lower last week, this after trading in a range of 24 cents. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed that funds were buyers of 27,102 futures contracts. This shrinks their net short position down to 44,861 futures. Keep in mind that this data is compiled from April 3rd- April 10th.

Fundamentals: Winter weather over the weekend was not enough to offset the prospect for better weather conditions this week. Rains are working their way into the forecast for areas that need it badly, this has put pressure on futures to start the week. If they do materialize it is possible that we see extended pressure throughout the week. We will continue to keep a close eye on the KC wheat contract as it will likely continue to be the leader.

Technicals: The gap lower on the Sunday night open was not the most encouraging sign for the bull camp, but that could change when we see more volume come in on the floor open. The bulls want to reclaim 467 -472 on a closing basis. This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement level, a previous gap, and the 50-day moving average; we had also defined this as key support to end last weeks trade. A failure to gain back ground could open the door for a run back towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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