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U.S. Bank Earnings Better than Expected


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April 13, 2018

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher, as they look past geopolitical risks and concerns about possible faster interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. In addition, there is support from expectations of strong corporate earnings. First quarter earnings season started today.

Stronger than expected earnings from U.S. banks were supportive.

Investors are expecting tax cuts to help U.S. corporations show their biggest quarterly earnings growth in seven years.

Some analysts are predicting quarterly earnings for S&P 500 companies to increase 17% to 18.5% from a year ago.

The 9:00 central time April consumer sentiment index is expected to be 101 and the 9:00 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is anticipated to be 6.143 million.

Longer term, traders will probably gradually shift their focus of attention more toward earnings and the still accommodative global interest rate environment.

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is higher due to the increased probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate in June.

The euro currency is lower in spite of news that the euro zone's trade surplus widened in February.

The German final March consumer price index was up .4%, as expected.

Flight to quality longs continue to be liquidated in the Japanese yen in light of the perceived reduced tensions in Syria.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to stronger crude oil prices.

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are a little lower as flight to quality longs are liquidated as a result of reduced Mideast tensions.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said the economy is getting strong fiscal stimulus right now.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank PresidentRobert Kaplan will speak at 12:00.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee at the June 13 meeting is 95%, which compares to 90% yesterday.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 18 S&P 500

Support 2649.00 Resistance 2685.00

June 18 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 89.210 Resistance 89.640

June 18 Euro Currency

Support 1.23540 Resistance 1.24160

June 18 Japanese Yen

Support .93010 Resistance .93690

June 18 Canadian Dollar

Support .79430 Resistance .79850

June 18 Australian Dollar

Support .7743 Resistance .7823

June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 145^0 Resistance 145^26

June 18 Gold

Support 1331.0Resistance 1350.0

May 18 Copper

Support 3.0500 Resistance 3.1000

May 18 Crude Oil

Support 66.58 Resistance 67.88

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For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.



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About the author


Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at alan.bush@admis.com.

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