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Soybean Commentary - Just My Opinion

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On Friday, first half Monday it seemed like the trade was trading the 555 million bu. carryout for US soybeans. Last half Monday, Tuesday the trade reverted back to trading the ongoing woes in Argentina. It should be noted that many forecasters are suggesting a significant rain event is slated for this weekend, early next week in Argentina. Many will say too little too late but as we move forward into this week I have to think the trade will respect this potential rainfall.

The interior soybean basis levels continue to show a defensive tone. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Im told that many of the recently contracted soybeans sold to China will be going off of the PNW. Soybean spreads ran steady to a shade lower within the crop year while old crop gains ever so slightly vs. the new crop. I find it interesting (bearish) that the old crop new crop spreads have failed to reverse course back higher with the recent 1 day rally. Interior cash meal continues to be soft and now export prices appear to be softening. Despite this meal spreads are trying to advertise support from the recent sell off.

The technical look for meal and soybeans appears to be trying to retrace the recent sell off. With that said the sell signal we saw on Friday has yet to be negated. Bean oil continues to be in a world of its own as it remains tied to the palm market. Palm oil saw its best rally in two weeks on Tuesday. That strength has bean oil at the low side of some significant looking resistance that was created last week when prices moved into new low ground for its current4 month trend lower. The bottomline charts suggests were supposed to be selling rallies not much further up from what we saw today.

Daily Support & Resistance for 03/14

May Soybeans: $10.35 - $10.56

May Soybean Meal; $370.0 - $381.0

May Soybean Oil: $31.75 - $32.50

Trading Futures is Risky - Plan the Trade - Trade the Plan

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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