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Redux: Songs For Hard Times

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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Stocks, bonds and commodities dropped approximately 10% from the highs posted in late January but in recent weeks have rallied sharply. The bears view the recent rally as little more than a dead cat bounce. The bulls, on the other hand, remain upbeat, buying the breaks and predicting higher values moving forward.

But two weeks ago, when stocks, bonds and commodities were on their lows, the bulls were wringing their collective hands and moaning and groaning that, "times were hard." Hard times? Hardly!

Below is my Commodity Insite column I penned on October 18, 2013 for the handful of newspapers I write for entitled, "Songs for Hard Times." Here is the column in full. You decide if times were harder back then or now. You decide!


"The stock and commodity markets have collapsed. Some of the largest and most prestigious banks and financial institutions have gone belly up. The number of people unemployed is rising. Home foreclosures are at record high levels. Times are hard.

Adversity is considered the grindstone of life. It is an old clich but the truth is, hard times either grind you down or polish you up. On, I found some examples of how hard times polished up a few people down thru history.

Ludwig Beethoven composed his greatest works after becoming deaf. Sir Walter Raleigh wrote the History of the World during a thirteen year imprisonment. If Columbus has turned back, no one could have blamed him considering the constant adversity he endured.

Abraham Lincoln achieved greatness by his display of wisdom and character during the devastation of the Civil War. Luther translated the Bible while enduring confinement in the Castle of Wartburg. Under a sentence of death and during the twenty years in exile, Dante wrote the Divine Comedy. John Bunyan wrote Pilgrims Progress in a Bedford jail.

The media and the incessant talking heads bombard us daily with doom and gloom because of the financial mess plaguing everyone. Daily, hourly, minute by minute all they discuss is hard times. What a bummer!

Rather than listen to the doom and gloomers I wish to suggest something different. Beg, borrow or buy an iPod or Zune and download the following tunes. In times like these, if you have to listen to bad news, I say, hear it in a song! The following are my top choices for the best all around, Hard Time Songs.

**Theres Nothing Soft About Hard Times by Jimmy Buffett.

**How Can A Poor Man Stand Such Times And Live? Blind Alfred Reed, updated by Bruce Springsteen.

**Gypsy Woman(Shes Homeless) by Crystal Waters

**Take This Job And Shove It! by Johnny Paycheck.

**Coal Miners Daughter by Loretta Lynn.

**Mr. President(Have Pity On The Working Man) lyrics by Randy Newman.

**Workingman Blues by Merle Haggard.

**Aint Nothing Going On But the Rent by Gwen Guthrie.

**In The Ghetto by Elvis Presley.

**Bread Line Blues by Slim Smith.

**See The Black Clouds ABreak Over Yonder by Chubby Parker.

**Starving To Death On A Government Claim by Edward L. Crain

**The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow from sound tract, Annie by various artists

**Hard Time Will Be The Best Time by Charley Pride.

** "She Got the Goldmine, I Got the Shaft" by Jerry Reed.

**Patches by Clarence Parker.

In 1963, Ray Charles won his fourth Grammy in a row for, Busted. Log on to and watch him sitting comfortably at the piano, swaying to and fro, head bobbing and in his own unique style singing;

"My bills are all due and the baby needs shoes and Im busted.

Cotton is down to a quarter a pound, but Im busted.

I got a cow that went dry and a hen that wont lay

A big stack of bills that gets bigger each day.

The countys gonna haul my belongings away cause I'm busted."

Doom and gloomers may want to have, "Busted" the ring tone on their cell phone but not me. I expect economy to turn upward, jobs to be regained, home foreclosures to slow and the markets to rally. That is why the ringtone on my cell phone is from the 1939 movie classic, "The Wizard of Oz." The second verse of the song I am referring to goes like this;

"Somewhere over the rainbow

Skies are Blue,

And the dreams that you dare dream

Really do come true."


The time is 8:56 a.m. Sunday, February 18

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About the author

Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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