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Map Updates Could Dominate the Day

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Good Morning! From Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for February 13, 2018.

Grain markets monitor the latest in map updates as dryness concerns persist in Argentine soybean areas as well as US wheat regions. Volatility in equity markets continues to be a factor worth mentioning.

South American forecasts continue to be watched closely by trade. Argentina is currently in the flower stage. That is the equivalent of the month of July in the US. Setting pods, the next phase, it about 2 weeks away. The 90 Day Precip in Cordoba is currently 8.5 inches. The normal is 15.4.

Chinese buyers cancelled previous orders of US soybeans totaling 455,000 metric tonnes (16.7 million bushels) yesterday. Some suggest this was due to the poorer quality of US soybeans this year (the US Soybean Export Council reports this year's protein content at 34.1%, tied for the lowest reading since they began reporting in 1986). Others are suggesting this is a retaliation for the recently enacted US tariffs on solar panels and washing machine. Year to date, (as of Feb 1) China has procured 26.406 million tonnes of US soybeans, under last year's 33.514 mt procurement.

A truck owners strike which had left almost 100 cargo ships waiting to be loaded ended over the weekend after the owners and the government agreed to meet later this month. Truckers are attempting to increase the mandatory minimum grain hauling rates.

NOPA crush is set to be released Thursday morning at 11:00 AM CST. Estimates for the report will be out later today or tomorrow.

Export inspections for the week ending February 8th had wheat exports of 487,902 tonnes, corn exports of 835,131 tonnes, and soybean exports of 1,319,038 tonnes.

Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 20,000 corn contracts, 17,000 soybeans, 9,000 wheat, and 13,000 soymeal in yesterday's trade. Will short-covering continue as funds near flat in corn and soybeans?

The Trump administration's infrastructure proposal released on Monday would speed up the permitting of US natural gas pipelines, including by cutting Congress out of the process for allowing them to cross national parks. The $1.5 trillion infrastructure proposal deliver projects in a less costly and more time effective manner by creating a new, expedited structure for environmental reviews and delegating more decision-makingto States and enhancing coordination between State and Federal reviews, the proposal says. (Reuters)

Hog futures dipped to new lows early in the morning session yesterday, but recovered and were above the highs posted in the two previous days. Chart analysts call this an Outside Day that closed higher.

Weekly showlist estimates reported 7,900 head of cattle under last week. As a reminder, this is typically the lowest supply offered of the entire year.

Weekly Comprehensive Boxed Beef report showed that for extended delivery, wholesale beef to be delivered >22 days, end users picked up 3% more than the previous year in the same week. That is over the previous two weeks procurements, -27% and -16% year/year. Over the past four weeks as a whole, their procurement is 4% under last year.

Dressed beef values were higher with choice up 1.72 and select up 1.23. The CME Feeder Index is 147.63. Pork cutout value is up 2.27.

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About the author

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

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