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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 +1.20%) this morning are up +0.99% and European stocks are up +1.36% on relative calm in global financial markets. The dollar fell and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a new 4-year high of 2.89% on concern about rising U.S. budget deficits. President Trump will unveil his budget proposal today that will seek billions in new spending to improve a border wall, improve veteran's health care and combat opioid abuse. The weaker dollar has boosted commodity prices with Mar WTI crude oil (CLH18 +1.62%) up +1.72%, which lifted energy stocks, and boosted mining stocks with Mar COMEX copper (HGH18 +1.42%) up +1.35%. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan closed for holiday, Hong Kong -0.16%, China +0.78%, Taiwan +0.48%, Australia -0.30%, Singapore +0.23%, South Korea +1.08%, India +0.87%. Chinese stocks closed higher, led by strength in financial stocks, on signs of strong credit growth after China Jan new yuan loans rose +2.9 trillion yuan, the most since record began in 1992.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.21%) is down -0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.10%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12%.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.39%)are down -12.5 ticks.

China Jan new yuan loans increased by a record 2.90 trillion yuan (data from 1992), stronger than expectations of 2.05 trillion yuan. Jan aggregate financing rose 3.06 trillion yuan, weaker than expectations of 3.15 trillion yuan, but still the largest increase in a year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) USDA weekly grain export inspections, (2) Jan monthly budget statement (expected +$51.0 billion, Dec -$23.2 billion).

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Loews Corp (consensus $0.71), Vornado Realty Trust (0.77), FMC (1.05), Brighthouse Financial (2.12).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: Credit Suisse Energy Summit on Mon-Wed, Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference on Tue, Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum on Tue-Wed, Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference on Tue-Thu, ACI European Biopolymer Summit on Wed, Capital Link Cyprus Shipping Forum on Wed, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference on Wed-Thu, LEERINK Partners Global Healthcare Conference on Wed-Thu.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

American Express (AXP +3.83%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Nomura Instinet with a 12-month target price of $108.

Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN -1.00%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at BMO Capital Markets with a price target of $69.

Molson Coors (TAP -0.40%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' at Credit Suisse with a price target of $94.

T-Mobile (TMUS +0.54%) was upgraded to 'Strong Buy' from 'Outperform' at Raymond James with a 12-month target price of $76.

Manitowoc (MTW -0.09%) was downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at JPMorgan Chase.

iRobot (IRBT -3.18%) was upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Raymond James with a 12-month target price of $75.

Lumber Liquidators (LL +5.04%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' at Wedbush.

Unisys (UIS +18.56%) was downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Positive' at Susquehanna Financial.

American International Group reported a 7.9% passive stake in Macy's (M +0.62%) .

CDJK Global (CDK +0.29%) may move higher this morning after people with knowledge of the matter said a buyout group led by Carlyle Group and Silver Lake are nearing an agreement to acquire CDK Global.

Quidel (QDEL +3.27%) holder Jack Schuler boosted his stake in Quidel to 12.9% from 10.04% on Jan 22.

Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR -1.24%) reported a Q1 loss per share of -18 cents, wider than consensus of -16 cents.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESH18 +1.20%) this morning are up +26.00 points (+0.99%). Friday's closes: S&P 500 +1.49%, Dow Jones +1.38%, Nasdaq +1.69%. The S&P 500 on Friday plunged to a 4-month low but recovered its losses and settled sharply higher. Stocks found support last Friday on Congressional approval last Thursday night of a 2-year budget agreement and a continuing resolution to keep the U.S. government open through March 23. There were also upbeat comments from Kansas City Fed President George who said, "in the near-term, the good news is that the U.S. economy is currently growing at a moderate pace, with full employment and price stability." Stocks were undercut by ongoing concerns about inflation and interest rates. Mining stocks and commodity producers were weak after copper prices tumbled -1.57% to a 1-3/4 month low. Energy stocks were also weak after crude oil prices sank -3.19% to a 1-1/2 month low.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.39%) this morning are down -12.5 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH8 +9.00, FVH8 +8.50. Mar 10-year T-notes on Friday closed higher on the early sell-off in the S&P 500 to a 4-month low and the recent extreme volatility in the equity market, which boosted the safe-haven demand for T-notes. T-notes were also supported by a decline in inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate dropped to a 3-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.21%) this morning is down -0.214 (-0.24%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0012 (+0.10%) and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.13 (-0.12%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.213 (+0.24%), EUR/USD +0.0005 (+0.04%), USD/JPY +0.06 (+0.06%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on reduced U.S. political risks after Congress approved a 2-year budget agreement and a debt ceiling suspension through March 2019. GBP/USD tumbled to a 3-week low after EU negotiator Barnier warned of economic risks to the UK if a deal is not reached on Brexit.

Mar crude oil (CLH18 +1.62%) this morning is up +$1.02 a barrel (+1.72%) and Mar gasoline (RBH18 +1.21%) is +0.0232 (+1.36%). Friday's closes: Mar WTI crude -1.95 (-3.19%), Mar gasoline -0.0648 (-3.67%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday fell to 1-1/2 month lows and closed sharply lower. Crude oil prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and by supply concerns after Wednesday's EIA data showed a +3.3% increase in U.S. crude production to 10.251 million bpd, a 47-year high. Friday's Baker Hughes report was bearish since it showed that U.S. active oil rigs in the week ended Feb 9 rose sharply by +26 rigs to a 2-3/4 year high of 791.

Metals prices this morning are higher with Apr gold (GCJ18 +0.43%) +6.7 (+0.51%), Mar silver (SIH18 +1.43%) +0.231 (+1.43%), and Mar copper (HGH18 +1.42%) +0.041 (+1.35%). Friday's closes: Apr gold -3.3 (-0.25%), Mar silver -0.202 (-1.24%), Mar copper -0.0485 (-1.57%). Metals prices on Friday closed lower with Mar silver at a 1-1/2 month low and Mar copper at a 1-3/4 month low. Metals prices were undercut by a stronger dollar and fund selling of gold as long gold positions in ETFs fell to a 3-week low on Thursday. Copper was undercut by increased copper supplies after LME copper inventories jumped +20,125 MT to an 8-1/2 month high of 336,225 MT and weekly Shanghai copper inventories rose +13,537 MT to a 5-1/2 month high of 186,132 MT.



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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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