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What to watch for in today's USDA report


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Grain Express

CORN (March)

Yesterdays Close:March corn futures closed down of a cent, trading in a range of 2 cents on the session. Funds were estimated sellers of 1,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: There is not much new news from yesterday as market participants await this mornings USDA report, that will be released at 11 am cst. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 437,800 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 300,000-700,000 metric tons; last weeks report came in at 101,198 metric tons. CONAB released their updates for Brazils corn crop, they have it at 92.3mmt, this is up .1mmt from last month. Trade estimates are pretty much all in for todays report, arguably the biggest report of the year. The headline number will be yields, but the valuable nuggets will be in the ending/quarterly stocks data. Corn yield estimates are ranging from 173.7-176.4 with the average estimate at 175.2. Production estimates are near 14.579 billion bushels. Trade estimates for US quarterly stocks are ranging from 12.23-12.68 billion bushels with the average estimate at 12.41 billion bushels. US ending stocks estimates are ranging from 2.26-2.52 billion bushels with the average estimate at 2.44 billion bushels.

Technicals: 350 looks to be the magnet as we head into todays USDA report. First technical resistance comes in at 353 , this represents the 50-day moving average. A break and close above could open the door for short covering from the funds, the next objective would be....Please sign up for a Free Trial on Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

SOYBEANS (March)

Yesterdays Close: March soybeans finished down 5 cents yesterday, trading in a range of 8 on the session. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Today is the day, USDA day! Export sales yesterday morning came in at 607,400 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 500,000-900,000 metric tons; last weeks report came in at 553,986 metric tons. CONAB released estimates for Brazils crop, that came in at 110.4mmt, this is up 1.2mmt from last month. Market participants continue to gear up for todays USDA report which is arguably one of if not the biggest report of the year. Yield numbers will be the headline number, but ending and quarterly stocks will be the more significant numbers. Quarterly stocks estimates range from 2.96-3.31 billion bushels with the average coming in at 3.19 billion bushels. US Ending stocks estimated range is from .425-.595 billion bushels with the average of .445 billion bushels.

Technicals: The market took another turn south yesterday, searching for stops below technical support, but failing to accelerate and lend hand to panic selling. We continue to feel that there is value in beans at these prices, obviously with todays report managing risk will be top priority. If we see a friendly report cross the wires it is very possible we could see....Please sign up for a Free Trial on Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

WHEAT (March)

Yesterdays Close: March wheat futures finished the day down of a cent, trading in a range of 6 cents on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 71,500 metric tons, this compares with estimates from 250,000-500,000 metric tons; last weeks report came in at 130,963 metric tons. Fridays USDA report should put a little extra volatility into the market. US quarterly stocks estimates range from 1.80 billion bushels to 1.91 billion bushels with the average at 1.85 billion bushels. US ending stocks are estimated to come in from .855 billion bushels to .987 billion bushels with the average estimate at .96 billion bushels. Seeded acres expectations come in from 30.1-32.7 million acres with the average being 31.4 million acres.

Technicals:The chart has certainly turned more favorable this week especially considering yesterdays export sales data. Todays USDA report will likely set the tone for the intermediate term. If the report comes in on the friendly side, we could see short covering press prices towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial on Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

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About the author


Oliver Sloup is Vice President of Blue Line Futures, a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line Futures mission is to put the customer first, and that means bringing YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology.  Oliver has been a guest on CNBC and Bloomberg, among others.  Oliver has over a decade of trading experience. Prior to Blue Line Futures, Oliver worked as the Director of Managed Futures at iiTRADER.

 

 

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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