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OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 +0.17%) this morning are up +0.21% at a fresh record nearest-futures high on optimism for strong Q4 corporate earnings results. Also, stronger-than-expected China Dec exports also bolstered confidence in the global economic outlook. European stocks are up +0.35% and EUR/USD (^EURUSD) surged to a 3-year high after German negotiators reached a preliminary accord on a coalition. A slump in the dollar index to a 4-month low boosted gold prices with Feb COMEX gold  (GCG18 +0.76%) up +0.71% at a 4-month high. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan -0.24%, Hong Kong +0.94%, China +0.10%, Taiwan +0.68%, Australia +0.04%, Singapore +0.22%, South Korea +0.32%, India +0.26%. China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1-1/2 month high after stronger-than-expected China Dec exports eased Chinese economic concerns. Japanese stocks closed lower as exporters fell as USD/JPY dropped to a 1-1/4 month low and reduced the earnings prospects of exporters.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.56%) is down -0.53% at a 4-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.69% at a 3-year high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.11% at a 1-1/4 month low.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.10%) are down -4 ticks.

German Chancellor Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, the Bavarian CDU Party and the Social Democrats, after a marathon of more than 24 hours of talks, hammered out an agreement that outlines a possible alliance.

China Dec new yuan loans rose by +584.4 billion yuan, weaker than expectations of +1.0 trillion yuan and the smallest amount in 17 months. Dec aggregate financing rose +1.14 trillion yuan, weaker than expectations of +1.500 trillion yuan.

The China Dec trade balance was in surplus by +$54.69 billion, wider than expectations of +$37.00 billion and the biggest surplus in nearly 2-years. Dec exports rose +10.9% y/y, stronger than expectations of +10.8% y/y. Dec imports rose +4.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +15.1% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in a year.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Dec CPI (expected +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Nov +0.4% m/m and +2.2% y/y) and Dec CPI ex food & energy (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y), (2) Dec retail sales (expected +0.5% and +0.4% ex autos, Nov +0.8% m/m and +1.0% ex autos), (3) Nov business inventories (expected +0.4%, Oct -0.1%), (4) Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) delivers a speech on the economic outlook to the Central Bucks Chamber of Commerce, (5) USDA Q4 quarterly grain stocks, (6) USDA Jan WASDE crop production, (7) Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (non-voter) delivers keynote address at a conference at the University of California, San Diego Rady School of Management on Money, Models and Digital Innovation.

Notable Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: JPMorgan Chase (consensus $1.69), Wells Fargo (1.02), PNC Financial (2.20), Blackrock (5.98).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: none.

OVERNIGHT U.S. STOCK MOVERS

Humana (HUM +0.80%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jeffries with a price target of $333.

eBay (EBAY +0.29%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey with a price target of $46.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.54%) fell -0.5% in pre-market trading after it reported a -26% decline in Q4 trading revenue, a bigger decline than expectations of -19%.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +1.31%) was rated a new 'Outperform' at Wedbush with a 12-month target price of $67.

Finisar (FNSR +2.44%) gained 2% in after-hours trading after it announced the retirement of co-founder and CEO Jerry Rawls and appointment of Michael Hurlston as new CEO effective today.

Exact Sciences (EXAS +2.04%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it announced an underwritten public offering of $500 million in convertible senior notes due 2025.

Travelport Worldwide Ltd (TVPT -1.46%) climbed almost 4% in after-hours trading after it was named to replace Bob Evans in the S&P SmallCap 600 before the open of trading on Wednesday, Jan 17.

Astronics (ATRO +1.86%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after it raised its 2018 consolidated revenue estimate to $745 million-$815 million from a prior view of $675 million-$750 million.

Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +3.46%) dropped almost 3% in after-hours trading after it announced the commencement of an underwritten public offering of 19.2 million shares of its Class A common stock.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +1.51%) slid nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it acknowledged that two vulnerabilities apply to its chips after it said on Jan 3 that it sees "near zero risk" its chips were vulnerable to hacking.

Miragen Therapeutics (MGEN +0.35%) was rated a new 'Outperform at Oppenheimer with an 18-month target price of $13.

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT -2.63%) was rated a new 'Buy' at Noble Financial Group with a 12-month target price of $10.

Aradigm (ARDM -7.57%) plunged 44% in after-hours trading after the FDA failed to approve Aradigm's Linhaliq for treatment of non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in patients with chronic lung pseudomonas aeruginosa infections.

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar S&P 500 E-mini stock futures (ESH18 +0.17%) this morning are up +5.75 points (+0.21%) at a new record nearest-futures high. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +0.70%, Dow Jones +0.81%, Nasdaq +0.69%. The S&P 500 on Thursday pushed up to a new record high and closed higher on strength in energy stocks after crude oil prices climbed to a new 3-year high. Stocks were also boosted by the U.S. Dec core PPI report of -0.1% m/m and rose +2.3% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y and was dovish for Fed policy. A bearish factor was the unexpected +11,000 increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims to a 3-1/2 month high of 261,000, worse than expectations for a decline of -5,000 to 245,000.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.10%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Thursday's closes: TYH8 +4.00, FVH8 +1.75. Mar 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Dec PPI report and on exceptional demand for the Treasury's $12 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds that had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.74, well above the 12-auction average of 2.31 and he highest in 3 years. T-note prices were undercut by negative carry-over from a slide in German bund prices to a 5-3/4 month low on the hawkish minutes from the Dec 14 ECB meeting.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.56%) this morning is down -0.485 (-0.53%) at a 4-month low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0095 (+0.79%) at a 3-year high and USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.12 (-0.11%) at a 1-1/4 month low. Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.480 (-0.52%), EUR/USD +0.0084 (+0.70%), USD/JPY -0.18 (-0.16%). The dollar index on Thursday closed lower on the unexpected -0.1% m/m decline in U.S. Dec core PPI report, the first decline in 10-months, which was dovish for Fed policy. There was also strength in EUR/USD after the minutes of the Dec 14 ECB meeting stated that policy makers could revisit their forward guidance early this year, in line with a strengthening economy.

Feb crude oil (CLG18 -0.85%) this morning is down -41 cents (-0.64%) and Feb gasoline (RBG18 -0.59%) is -0.0052 (-0.28%). Thursday's closes: Feb WTI crude +0.23 (+0.36%), Feb gasoline +0.0043 (+0.23%). Feb crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed higher with Feb crude at a 3-year high and Feb gasoline at a 4-1/2 month nearest-futures high. Crude oil prices were supported by a weaker dollar, carry-over support from Wednesday's -4.95 million bbl decline in EIA crude inventories to a 2-1/3 year low, and comments from U.A.E. Energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei who said OPEC will stick with its production cuts for the rest of the year.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Feb gold (GCG18 +0.76%) +9.4 (+0.71%) at a 4-month high, Mar silver (SIH18 +1.06%) +0.174 (+1.03%), and Mar copper (HGH18 -0.25%) -0.010 (-0.29%). Thursday's closes: Feb gold +3.2 (+0.24%), Mar silver -0.069 (-0.41%), Mar copper -0.0025 (-0.08%). Metals on Thursday settled mixed with Mar silver at a 1-week low and Mar copper at a 2-1/2 week low. Metals prices were undercut by the rally in stocks that reduced the safe-haven demand for precious metals, and by the hawkish minutes of the Dec 14 ECB meeting, which suggests tighter ECB monetary policy sooner rather than later. Gold closed higher on a weaker dollar.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR01/12/2018
Friday, Jan 12
US 0830 ET Dec CPI expected +0.1% m/m and +2.1% y/y, Nov +0.4% m/m and +2.2% y/y. Dec CPI ex food & energy expected +0.2% m/m and +1.7% y/y, Nov +0.1% m/m and +1.7% y/y.
0830 ET Dec retail sales expected +0.5% and +0.4% ex autos, Nov +0.8% m/m and +1.0% ex autos.
1000 ET Nov business inventories expected +0.4%, Oct -0.1%.
1200 ET Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (non-voter) delivers a speech on the economic outlook to the Central Bucks Chamber of Commerce.
1200 ET USDA Q4 quarterly grain stocks.
1200 ET USDA Jan WASDE crop production.
1615 ET Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (non-voter) delivers keynote address at a conference at the University of California, San Diego Rady School of Management on Money, Models and Digital Innovation.
Tuesday, Jan 16
US 0830 ET Jan Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions expected unch at 18.0, Dec -1.4 to 18.0.
1100 ET USDA weekly grain export inspections.
U.S. STOCK CALENDAR01/12/2018
BlackRock IncBLK USBef-mktQ4 2017 Earnings ReleaseQ4 17 5.984
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The PNC US 06:40 Q4 2017 Earnings Release Q4 17 2.196
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM US 06:45 Q4 2017 Earnings Release Q4 17 1.694
Wells Fargo & Co WFC US 08:00 Q4 2017 Earnings Release Q4 17 1.022
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM US 08:30 Q4 2017 Earnings Call Q4 17
BlackRock Inc BLK US 08:30 Q4 2017 Earnings Call Q4 17
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The PNC US 09:30 Q4 2017 Earnings Call Q4 17
Wells Fargo & Co WFC US 10:00 Q4 2017 Earnings Call Q4 17


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Barchart U.S. Morning Call is written by the experienced members of the Commodity Research Bureau and the Barchart Research Team.  Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) has been providing research to the financial and commodity community since 1934.  If you have any questions for our analysts, please contact us at support@crbtrader.com.

Sent every morning, "Morning Call" summarizes overnight global market news, along with a U.S. market forecast for the day ahead. It Includes upcoming earnings reports, a global financial calendar, and quote board overview of where the markets are standing.

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