rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

Opportunity in Currencies

Bookmark and Share

FX Rundown

Euro (December)

Session close:Finished right at 1.18 down about 23 ticks

Fundamentals:The Euro edged lower on the session despite ECB board member Mersch saying how the ECB should plan for the end of bond buying and that the economic recovery will make stimulus unnecessary. Furthermore, early this morning German Factory Orders were better than expected and in the U.S ADP Payrolls and Nonfarm Productivity were both light. All in all, one would have thought the Euro would gain on the heels of this news. However, the focus remains a grind higher in the U.S Dollar on tax-reform, ahead of Nonfarm and next weeks Fed rate hike meeting with a heavy does of technicals that we discussed last night.Tomorrowbrings German Industrial Production at1:00 am CT, Eurozone GDP at4:00and a speech from Draghi at10:00.

Technicals:We have been outspoken on our long term bullish thesis but made it clear that yesterdays move into support and below the rising trend line opened the door for the bears. Price action today has fought stronger fundamentals on the session and grinded lower because of this. We are eyeing 1.1728-1.1730 as a strong buy opportunity.


Resistance 1.18875-1.1903**, 1.1942**, 1.19975-1.2019***, 1.2154-1.2180****

Pivot - 1.1824-1.1837

Support 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December)

Session close:Settled at about .8910 and gained a quarter of a penny

Fundamentals:The Yen has been working itself higher on the session in the face of weakness in equity markets. The S&P sold off into the close yesterday and Asian markets took it on the chin overnight. The Nikkei however has cut losses in half ahead of the U.S close. Treasuries are rising along with the Yen, but Gold is the lagging musketeer. Data on Foreign Bond Buying and Investment in Japanese stocks is outtonightat5:50 pm CT. There is a 30-year JGP auction istonight. It does not look like the U.S government will shut down due to the lack of a budget deal, but traders should continue to watch for this and the Yen being a potential beneficiary. Japanese GDP istomorrowevening.

Technicals:Price action traded into R2 today but retreated to settle just below R1 at .8913-.8917. The tape needs to get out above the 9-day moving average which aligns with R2 in order to spark a bullish intermediate term setup. However, strong resistance lies ahead, a move out above here and specifically major three-star resistance will spark a short-covering rally that should garner legs.


Resistance -.8930-.8939**, .8960**, .8982-.8995**, .9018-.9045***, .9119**, .9321-.9359****

Pivot - .8913-.8917

Support - .8880-.8884**, .8845-.88475**, .8801**, .8730***

Aussie (December)

Session close:Lost about 40 ticks on the session to .7564

Fundamentals:Aussie GDP data missed expectations last night and took the wind from the currencys sails; 2.8% YoY vs 3%. A strengthening Dollar has added to pressures making it a difficult session on the heels of a wait and see approach from the RBA earlier in the week.Tonightwill be key as it begins to round out a thick week of data and Trade Balance is due at6:30 pm CT.

Technicals:Price action has bled clearly back below .7605-.7607 and faces major three-star support at .7530-.7550 which will be a critical battle through the rest of the week.


Resistance - .7605**, .7645-.7676***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***

Support - .7530-.7550***, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close:Lost more than half a penny on the session to finish at about .7816

Fundamentals:The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged today which was not a surprise. The verbiage though essentially closed the door on a rate hike early next year. Labor Productivity missed the market this morning and this pushed the Canadian off of session highs ahead of the meeting. The announcement itself sparked a sizable drop and signals a failure against higher prices. Weakness in Crude Oil has also weighed on price action. Building Permits are due at7:30 am CTtomorrowand Ivey PMI is at9:00.

Technicals:Price action fell short of major three-star resistance early this week and on the heels of strong data last Friday. Due to this and the failure yesterday ahead of the Bank of Canada we were clear in the FX Rundown last night on our wait and see approach and Neutralized our stance on the Canadian. This is clear technical damage and the bears are now in the drivers seat.


Resistance .7858*, .7897-7902*, 7922**, .7950-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7803**, .7730-.7745***, .7671**, 7550***

Sign up for 1 or all 5 of our Blue Line Express commodity reports!

Free Trial

Please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions on the markets, trading, or opening an account


Follow us on Twitter:@BlueLineFutures

Follow us on Facebook:Blue Line Futures Facebook page

Subscribe to our YouTube channel:Blue Line Futures YouTube channel

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Recent articles from this author

About the author

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

Contributing author since 10/6/17 

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.

Copyright ©2005-2019, a product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Terms of Use  •   Privacy Policy