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Corn Market - Just My Opinion

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Once again corn tries to rally in the night session as it hangs on the coattails of the soybean and soybean meal markets. Once again this attempt to rally fails as wheat moves lower and the soybean and soybean meal markets rolled over. We can make the argument that domestic demand is great ) last week saw a record grind for ethanol) but offsetting that is not so special export demand. In all of my years I have not seen sustainable bull markets without export demand. We can have crop scares but without export those scares rarely sustain the rally. For what it is worth Bloomberg News survey for the Dec 12th Supply-Demand update is suggesting the US corn carryout will dip by 9 million bu. and the World carryout will dip by 1.3 M T.

I follow 12 interior corn basis locations. On Wednesday 56 of the 12 saw higher bids; the remaining 7 ran unchanged. The Gulf basis, however, remains nothing special. Corn spreads within the crop year saw fractional improvements while the year to year spreads saw fractional declines.

Corn charts still show a double bottom. The however here is that we need to see some get up and go or prices will be inclined to sag further re-instilling the spec shorts confidence. March corn needs to close above $3.60 to rattlethe corn shorts cage. Another test of recent lows will get us additional selling.

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/07

March Corn: $3.50 - $3.58

July Corn: $3.66 - $3.74

TRading Futures is Risky - Be Careful Out There

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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