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Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Yesterday, here on Inside Futures in a piece entitled, "Are Bonds Suggesting More Weakness Tomorrow?"I stated..." the CRB Index is 114 points lower, having dropped below the November low earlier in the day. Since the index is weighted towards grains, livestock and petroleum, logic suggests at some point, those individual markets will all move in the same overall direction.


Also notice the Dow and Russell indexes are in the red with bond prices smartly higher and gaining 14 points. A close here or better with bonds places the market at its 2nd highest close in a month and a half. History shows bond prices to best when there is weakness with most all other markets.


Are bond prices being higher this afternoon suggesting there is more weakness to come on the downside tomorrow across the board? Is that what bonds are suggesting?


Avoid the long side of all markets. In particular, remain short and bear spread the critter complex.


The time is 11:22 a.m. Chicago

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This afternoon as I type furiously away, The CRB Index is down a whopping 235 points and far below the worse levels of November. The Index is, of course, weighted towards grains, livestock and petroleum and in that order. And right now, all three of those markets are deep in the red and in a world of hurt.

The best performing markets today are paper markets, stocks, bonds and the dollar. But to be honest, the Dow is a few ticks in the red and the Russell clearly lower. But for all intents, paper markets are higher as opposed to hard assets as measured by the CRB are lower to sharply lower.

What will tomorrow bring? I have a few ideas and trading suggestions that I have already passed on to those that subscribe to my twice a day newsletter and brokerage accounts. If you wish to know what I am thinking drop me a line.

p.s.. Go back to the previous few postings I placed here on Inside Futures and read what I had to say. All in all, the forecasts and predictions were good ones.

The time 11:15 a.m. Chicago


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About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

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