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FX Rundown

Euro (December)

Session close:Settled at 1.1866 and lost 37 ticks

Fundamentals:The Euro gapped lower on the open last night after the Senate passed their tax bill in the early hours ofSaturdaymorning. The Senate and the House still must come together in order to get a bill on the Presidents desk before the Christmas deadline, but this is likely. Brexit talks between the EU and UK stalled but will resume later this week. It was a quiet day of data, but the week will pick up with U.S Nonfarm Payrollon Friday. Spanish Unemployment came in much better than expected. Service PMIs are due outtomorrowalong with an EU Finance Ministers Meeting. Out of the U.S is ISM Non-Manufacturing at9:00 am CT.

Technicals:Strong resistance at the 1.1942 level has proved to hold.Fridayssession tested this level twice before losing steam into the close. Last nights gap moved price action below first support at 1.1866-1.18815 but this area remains key as this is the gap that the market must close back above. Key support comes in at 1.1824-1.1837, this aligns the .382 and the 100-day moving average, if the uptrend is to continue, the Euro must maintain a settlement above here.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 1.18875-1.1903**, 1.1942**, 1.19975-1.2019***, 1.2154-1.2180****

Support 1.1824-1.1837**, 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***



Yen (December)

Session close:Settled down about half a penny at .8884 but trimmed losses before the electronic close.

Fundamentals:After trading to a new swing low this morning the Yen began to show life in the second half of the session. With equity markets gapping higherSundaynight on the tax news, the Yen was the biggest loser gapping lower by half a penny. The tables turned before the end of the session with the Yen cutting losses in half and the S&P trading throughFridayssettlement which was more than 1% from the todays high. On another note we are noticing more traction in the media and articles supporting our belief that the Bank of Japan could surprise traders in the early part of next year. We may not call them hawkish but a step in the direction of less dovish would spark the huge rally we have been calling for in the long-run in the Yen. There is a 10-year JGB auctiontonightat9:45 pm CT

Technicals:Fridayselectronic close was essentially our .8915 level and this will be a key upside resistance heading intoTuesdayssession as this constitutes covering the gap lower last night and a new retracement at .8913-.8917; a close above here is essential in neutralizing recent weakness. Between here and major three-star resistance are several key hurdles still.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance - .8913-.8917**, .8930-.8939**, .8960**, .8982**, .9018-.9045***, .9119**, .9321-.9359****

Pivot - .8884

Support - .8845-.89475*, .8801**, .8730***



Aussie (December)

Session close:Lost 17 ticks on the session and settled at .7593

Fundamentals:Today was a consolidation for the AussietonightsRBA meeting and monetary policy announcement at9:30 pm CT. It doesnt stop there though in this big week for the Aussie; last nights data was mixed, New Home Sales is due this evening and Retail Sales at6:30 pm CT. GDP isTuesdaynight, Trade dataWednesdaynight and Home Loans and China Trade BalanceThursdaynight. Not to mention U.S Nonfarm PayrollFriday. The RBA is expected to sit tight on their record low rate of 1.5% after growth tended to slow in the fall, but this will be a critical week in interpreting the outcome of this meeting.

Technicals:Today was a true consolidation day ahead oftonightsRBA.Fridaysprice action worked off major-three-star support at .7530-.7550 before the Flynn testifying against Trump news and the spike high on that news blew through R1 and R2 but stalled in front of major three-star resistance at .7645-.7677. Major three-star resistance and support will be the line in the sand on either side during a critical week for the Aussie.

Bias:Neutral/Bullish

Resistance - .7605-.7607**, .7645-.7677***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***

Support - .7530-.7550***, .7390****



Canadian (December)

Session close:Settled at .78765 and lost 1.5 ticks

Fundamentals:The Canadian had a monster sessionon Fridaywith their Employment Change showing 79,500 jobs created versus expectations of only 10,000. GDP also beat expectations and the market gained more than a penny. Even without weakness in the U.S Dollar the Canadian would have gained at least a penny. Another big week gets underway with Trade Balance datatomorrowat7:30 am CTa Bank of Canada monetary policy meetingon Wednesdayand Ivey PMIon Thursday. It would seem that the data out of Canada is starting to turn a corner, the exact corner we have been discussing for the last month.

Technicals:Though major three-star support at .7790-.7803 was taken out for a short period of time last week, line in the sand support and previous lows at .7730-.7745 did hold. Price action is now running into resistance at .7897 but we are targeting major three-star resistance at .7950-.7960 at a minimum on the week and likely ahead ofWednesdaysBoC meeting.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance .7897**, .7950-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7858**, .7803**,.7730-.7745***, .7671**, 7550***

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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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