rounded corner
rounded corner
top border

A Rare Day


Bookmark and Share

Jerry Welch, Commodity Insite!
Call me at 406 -682 -5010
Ennis, Montana 59729

Follow me on twitter@commodityinsite

Today, my work flashed a sell signal for the Dow for only the 2nd time in two weeks. The Dow closed 67 higher but was far off the best levels of the day. Plus, the S&P and Russell 2000 posted downside key reversals. Adding salt to the wound, the Nasdaq was down 81 points to a new one month low. By any measure, stocks appears to have hit a wall today.


But here is where it gets interesting. The CRB Index, weighted towards grains, livestock and crude oil fell nearly 200 points and came with a meager 24 points of taking out the November low to the downside. Historically speaking, I doubt there has ever been a day in the 7 to 9 years when stocks flashed so many sell signals or key reversals on the same day the CRB also showed unusual weakness.


Based on what unfolded today with stocks and commodities per se as measured by the CRB Index, here are some thoughts and forecasts for tomorrow.

1)I look for hogs to close 150 lower with cattle flashing more red ink. 2)Grains should be lower and crude that fell nearly $1 today should be down that much tomorrow. 3) I look for the Russell 2000 to be slammed dunked hard. 4)And I fully expect the CRB to drop well below the worst levels of November and set the stage for lower values into January 1.


But as always when it comes to forecast and predictions only time will tell. Still, I do believe that today was the sort of day that has not been seen in the past 7 to 9 days. And on balance it was one ugly session with basically all markets in trouble.Tomorrow could be more of the same. Or, worse!

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solutionss Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.


DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION.


The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice.There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.





Recent articles from this author



About the author


Jerry Welch has been in the futures industry since the late 1970's and is a true veteran of the markets. He has been quoted often in Wall Street Journal and is author of Commodity Insite, one of the longest commodity futures newspaper columns in history. His weekly column has been published each week since the mid 1980's and is one of the most recognized names in the world of commodities.

Mr. Welch is also known widely as a, "so so" flyfisherman.  

His column is published by the Illinois Agri News in La Salle, Illinois, Cattle Today, in Fayette, Alabama as well as Consensus, in Kansas City, Kansas.

He can be contacted at 406.682.5010 for a view of his, "twice a day" market column that includes price forecasts and trading suggestions.

Published by Barchart
Home  •  Charts & Quotes  •  Commentary  •  Authors  •  Education  •  Broker Search  •  Trading Tools  •  Help  •  Contact  •  Advertise With Us  •  Commodities
Markets: Currencies  •   Energies  •   Financials  •   Grains  •   Indices  •   Meats  •   Metals  •   Softs

The information contained on InsideFutures.com is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Market data is furnished on an exchange delayed basis by Barchart.com. Data transmission or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action. No information on the site, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts. InsideFutures.com is not a broker, nor does it have an affiliation with any broker.


Copyright ©2005-2018 InsideFutures.com, a Barchart.com product. All rights reserved.

About Us  •   Sitemap  •   Legal  •   Privacy Statement