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Corn Market - Just My Opinion

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Flat price corn tries to rally with the rest of the Ag sector only to fail during Mondays day session. The low side of suspected resistance was challenged Sunday night and barely given a look on Monday. Weekly export inspections were nothing to write home about; numbers like we saw today dont go very far when one is looking for market making demand. The best demand continues to come from the domestic sector; processing (ethanol) and feed. The trade, so far, is not showing much concern over the dry bias conditions in Argentina. Its probably too early to voice any concern over Brazils second season corn crop.

Interior basis levels are reading steady to better. Recent increases tend to be slowing. The Gulf appears to be holding onto recent gains but thats about it. The month of December is normally known for its stronger interior basis levels as producers are reluctant sellers so as not to create additional income for the fiscal year. Corn spreads tried to rally last week along with the flat price short covering; most of those gains were given back on Monday.

On November 29th March corn made a low at $3.49 . Todays high was $3.60 . Of that 11 cent range todays low was 8 cents off of the high and todays close 7 cents off of the high. The bottomline to all of this is that the selloff we saw today figures into a Fibo retracement (61.8%) of the recent short covering rally. Currently flat price corn charts are featuring a double bottom. Anyone trying to be long in recent days will not want to see a close below $3.52 (March).

Daily Support & Resistance for 12/05

March Corn: $3.51 - $3.58

July Corn: $3.67 - $3.74

Trading Futures is Risky - Never Risk What You Don't Have to Risk

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About the author

Tom Fritz is a third generation commodity futures trader. His grandfather and his father were traders on the exchange. Tom began his career in 1971 with Tabor Grain which was later acquired by Archer Daniels Midland. Prior to co-founding IFG in 1994 Tom was the lead Chicago Board of Trade floor analyst for ADM. He produces Just My Opinion, a daily grain commentary that is well respected and viewed all over the world.



Contributing author since 11/7/2017 

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