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Tax Reform Delays Emerge Overnight

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December 1, 2017


S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures advanced to record highs yesterday as investors focused on positive developments surrounding the U.S. tax bill.

However, in the overnight trade futures declined as a result of complications in the effort to overhaul the U.S. tax code.

A stumbling block to the proposed tax policy changes emerged last night, as some Republican senators voiced concerns about the budget deficit, which delayed a vote.

The 8:45 central time November PMI manufacturing index is expected to be 54.5.

The 9:00 November Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 58.4 and the 9:00 November construction spending report is estimated to be up .5%.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.


The U.S. dollar was under pressure in the overnight trade when the U.S. Senate suspended voting on the tax reform bill until later today, as debate to win a majority vote broke down.

The British pound is lower in spite of news that U.K. manufacturing activity grew at the fastest rate in over four years last month.

The Japanese yen is lower in spite of a report that showed Japans manufacturing activity in November increased at its quickest rate in over three and a half years.

The Canadian dollar and the Australia dollar are higher due to higher crude oil prices.

In addition, the Canadian dollar was supported by news that Canadas gross domestic product in the third quarter increased 1.7% on an annualized basis. Economists predicted a 1.6% growth rate.


Futures are higher, especially at the long end of the curve due to a snag in tax reform.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan at 8:30 and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker at 9:15.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over than 99%.


December 17 S&P 500

Support 2628.00 Resistance 2654.00

December 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 92.540 Resistance 93.250

December 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.18620 Resistance 1.19640

December 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88610 Resistance .89330

December 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .77430 Resistance .77860

December 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7545 Resistance .7609

March 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 151^20 Resistance 153^0

February 18 Gold

Support 1272.0 Resistance 1284.0

March 18 Copper

Support 3.0600 Resistance 3.9000

January 18 Crude Oil

Support 57.21 Resistance 58.73

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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About the author

Alan Bush has been a commodity analyst since 1976 focusing on the fundamental and technical aspects of stock index, interest rate and foreign currency markets. He has authored several articles for Stocks Futures and Options magazine and produced the “Futures Tech Focus” program, which is a technically based market outlook.

Alan served on the faculty of Oakton College as instructor of a course entitled, “Principles of Technical Analysis.” He has been interviewed on many national television programs, appearing on the Nightly Business Report, CNBC, CNN Moneyline, Reuters Television and Web FN. In addition, he has been frequently quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Bond Buyer and the Chicago Tribune and has been regularly interviewed on Chicago’s WMAQ radio business reports.

Alan can be reached at (312) 242-7911, or via email at

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