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Morning Softs 11/30/17

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General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher yesterday and made new highs for the move. The market is now trying to extend the rally to the 7500 March area, and has been supported by good demand along with ideas of little on offer from producers. Speculators are already long, and mills have been forced to buy to cover open on call positions in the cash market. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions. Some precipitation is likely next week Temperatures should be near to above normal through tomorrow, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal early in the week and below normal late in the week. The USDA average price is now 71.16 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,951 bales, from 47,951 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 276,500 bales this year and 52,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 8,600 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7500 March. Support is at 7300, 7230, and 7100 March, with resistance of 7380, 7420, and 7460 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher in consolidation trading. There were no real fundamental items to push prices in either direction, but overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time. The harvest is progressing well and more fruit is starting to go to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting what is left as cleanup from the hurricane is about over now. The emphasis is on the fresh fruit market now, with processors mostly getting packing house eliminations at this time. However, processors are taking deliveries from producers now as well.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected today. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 9 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 38 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 157.00 January, with resistance at 168.00, 169.00, and 170.00 January.

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London yesterday on fund and other speculator buying. Trends are starting to turn up in New York, and the move yesterday implies that a short term rally can be expected. However, the trends remain sideways to down in London. The market expects an increase in offers of Robusta from Vietnam in the short term, but those offers have been slow in coming. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London. Many Arabica traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain in some areas now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some áreas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.921 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms again on Thursday and then starting Sunday. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 6 delivery notices were posted against December Contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,191 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 130.00 and 137.00 March. Support is at 129.00, 127.00, and 126.00 March, and resistance is at 134.00, 136.00 and 137.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 January. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 January, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 January.

DJ Ugandan Indicative Robusta Coffee Export Prices for Nov. 30
By Nicholas Bariyo
KAMPALA, Uganda–Below are the indicative cash export prices for Ugandan robusta coffee as provided by the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, or UCDA, on Thursday.
Grade Nearby Prices
Screen 18 85.14 (84.70)
Screen 15 79.14 (78.70)
Screen 12 77.14 (76.70)
*All prices are in U.S. cents for a pound of beans. Prices in brackets are the ones quoted by the UCDA last week.
Nearby delivery means within 45 days. Prices include transport costs to the Kenyan port of Mombasa, but not shipping costs.

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and a little lower in London in consolidation trading. Chart trends are still turning up again longer term as the market rallies in part with strength in energy markets and in part on US Dollar weakness. However, the market has been fading against resistance areas for the last few session. Brazil features a strong sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. Sugar production is now below year again levels. Trends could be turning up longer term in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market due to the ethanol use. The lack of demand against ideas of big world production remains the major negative factor.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms again starting on Thursday. Temperatures should be near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 406.00 March. Support is at 385.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher in New York and higher in London. The fundamentals suggest that a steadier market could develop soon, but bullish speculators are keeping the buying alive. There should be plenty of Cocoa available to the market as the main harvest in West Africa has been active. Weather consultants think that the crops are in mostly good condition, and the condition is likely to stay good in La Nina brings increased rains to production areas. It has been unseasonally wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. Ivory Coast processing data was strong in a report released Tuesday. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.736 million bags. ICE said that 4 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 412 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2080, 2070, and 2040 March, with resistance at 2130, 2150, and 2180 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1460 March, with resistance at 1540, 1560, and 1590 March.


Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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