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Morning Grain Market Research


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A brief respite from the selling in grain markets provided welcome relief but there was certainly nothing that occurred that would appear to have shaken the bears from their stronghold. The report of sales of 263,000 MT of beans to China and 101,600 MT of corn to unknown (China?) were nice but here again in face of the supply mentality in these markets and the general lack of interest, they by no means were enough to push prices back through overhead resistance. Adding a bit to the negative supply psychology in grains was the first estimate for the coming years Russian crops. SovEcon is projecting a possible grain production of 128.2 MMT, of which 76.7 MMT would be wheat. This would be lower that this years 134 MMT, (83.9 MMT wheat) but still would record the second largest on record. Of course, these are preliminary estimates and the long Russian winter lays ahead but the potential remains for that nation to remain a fierce competitor in the global export market.

Knowing that last week included the Thanksgiving holiday exports sales were expected to be light and that was verified this morning. For the week ending November 23rdwe sold just 599,200 MT of corn or 23.59 million bushels. This figure was 45% below the previous week and 54% under the 4-week average. The top buyer was Mexico with 205k MT, just ahead of Japan with 201,200 MT and then South Korea coming in at 71,200. This brings the marketing YTD total up to 867.09 million bushels or 45% of the USDA target. With 40 weeks left to go we will need to average 26.45 million per week moving forward. Beans sales were 9% higher than last week but of course that was a marketing year low. For this week, we sold 942,900 MT or 34.65 million bushels. On the top of the list as usual we find China with 717.7k MT, follow by the Netherlands at 85.1k and then Vietnam purchasing 73.6k. For the marketing year total sales now stand at 1,263,884,000 or 56% of target. The weekly average now needed to meet this stands at 24.65 million. Finally, wheat sales came through at just 184,400 MT or 6.78 million bushels. This figure was 8% below last week and 59% under the 4-week average. Colombia was the top purchaser with 48.2k MT followed by Japan with 44.6k and then the Philippines at 44.3k. Marketing year to date we have now sold 630.68 million bushels or 63% of the projected total. There are 27 more weeks in the year meaning we will need to average 13.68 million per week.

After the weekly sales were released, the USDA did announce solid sales in the daily system but the long-rumored corn sales to China are still rumors. In this release though we find 535,000 MT of beans to China, 132,000 MT of beans to unknown destinations and 110,000 MT of sorghum to China.

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About the author


Dan Hueber is the General Manager of The Hueber Report.  Mr. Hueber literally grew up in the grain industry, and entered the commodity futures and options business more than 35 years ago.  

Mr. Hueber’s methodology combines his deep understanding of fundamental data, various technical indicators, and his studies of Gann and Elliot Wave Theories.  You can find out more about him and sign up for our newsletter at www.thehueberreport.com.

Dan can be reached at dan.hueber@cgb.com

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