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Morning Softs 11/29/17

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General Comments: Cotton was mixed, with nearby months higher and deferred months lower. The market was unable to extend the rally, although futures traded close to the recent highs, and the charts still show the potential for a short term top. Trends turned up on the charts last week and it looks like a big low has been completed. The market met some initial swing targets on Friday. Speculators are already long, and mills have been forced to buy to cover open on call positions in the cash market. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through tomorrow, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal early in the week and below normal late in the week. The USDA average price is now 69.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,951 bales, from 47,951 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7200 and 7500 March. Support is at 7100, 7080, and 6960 March, with resistance of 7240, 7320, and 7380 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and remains in a short term trading range. There were no real fundamental items to push prices in either direction, but overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time. The harvest is progressing well and more fruit is starting to go to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting what is left as cleanup from the hurricane is about over now. The emphasis is on the fresh fruit market now, with processors mostly getting packing house eliminations at this time. However, processors are taking deliveries from producers now as well.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected on Wednesday. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 9 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 38 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 157.00 January, with resistance at 168.00, 169.00, and 170.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Nov 28
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 11/18/2017
Current Week Last
Week Season
11/18/2017 11/19/2016 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 171.55 189.28 -9.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.24 7.76 -6.7%
Total 178.79 197.04 -9.3%
Bulk 2.29 1.48 54.5%
Retail/Institutional 1.45 1.30 11.7%
Total Pack 3.74 2.78 34.5%
Reprocessed -2.24 -2.32 -3.4%
Pack from Fruit 1.50 0.47 223.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.23 -0.02 845.5%
Imports – Foreign 7.57 1.22 519.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.39 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.03 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 179.79 189.67 -5.2%
Retail/Institutional 8.69 9.06 -4.1%
Total 188.48 198.73 -5.2%
Domestic 4.82 5.34 -9.7%
Exports 0.34 0.05 596.6%
Total (Bulk) 5.16 5.39 -4.3%
Domestic 1.47 1.72 -14.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.47 1.72 -14.3%
Total Movement 6.63 7.10 -6.7%
Bulk 174.64 184.28 -5.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.22 7.34 -1.7%
Ending Inventory 181.86 191.63 -5.1%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
18-Nov-17 19-Nov-16 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Bulk 7.36 9.45 -22.1%
Retail/Institutional 9.78 11.42 -14.4%
Total Pack 17.13 20.87 -17.9%
Reprocessed -14.66 -19.64 -25.4%
Pack from Fruit 2.47 1.23 101.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.38 -0.67 -43.3%
Imports – Foreign 28.03 25.25 11.0%
Domestic Receipts 1.20 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product 0.03 0.67 -96.1%
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.13 0.07 103.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.14 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 207.49 227.49 -8.8%
Retail/Institutional 16.97 18.21 -6.8%
Total 224.46 245.70 -8.6%
Bulk 31.38 30.95 1.4%
Domestic 1.48 12.26 -87.9%
Exports 32.86 43.21 -24.0%
Total (Bulk)
Domestic 9.75 10.86 -10.2%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 9.75 10.86 -10.2%
Total Movement 42.61 54.07 -21.2%
Bulk 174.64 184.28 -5.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.22 7.34 -1.7%
Ending Inventory 181.86 191.63 -5.1%

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London yesterday on what appeared to be fund and other speculator buying. However, the trends remain sideways in New York and down in London. The market expects an increase in offers of Robusta from Vietnam in the short term, but those offers have been slow in coming. Internal prices in Vietnam are quoted at high levels compared to London. Many Arabica traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain in some areas now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. However, supplies in importer countries are called high and are providing a cushion for buyers, and buyers have been able to keep differentials low even with the low prices in futures.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.922 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms again on Thursday and then starting Sunday. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 671 delivery notices were posted against December Contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,185 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 123.00 March, and resistance is at 131.00, 132.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 January. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 January, and resistance is at 1750, 1800, and 1830 January.

General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets as prices started to fade from strong resistance on the charts. Chart trends are still turning up again longer term as the market rallies in part with strength in energy markets and in part on US Dollar weakness. Brazil features a strong sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. UNICA earlier this week showed a strong cane crush for for the first half of November, but Sugar production was down compared to last year. Trends could be turning up longer term in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market due t the ethanol use. The lack of demand against ideas of big world production are keeping the market in a fundamentally bearish mode.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms again starting on Thursday. Temperatures should be near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1580, and 1620 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 406.00 March. Support is at 385.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

General Comments: Futures closed lower follow through and chart based selling. The fundamentals suggest that a steadier market could develop soon. There should be planty of Cocoa available to the market as the main harvest in West Africa has been active. Weather consultants think that the crops are in mostly good condition, and the condition is likely to stay good in La Nina brings increased rains to production areas. It has been unseasonally wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. Ivory Coast processing data was strong in a report released Tuesday. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should seefrequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.744 million bags. ICE said that 12 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 408 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2030, 2010, and 1960 March, with resistance at 2080, 2110, and 2130 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1460 March, with resistance at 1540, 1560, and 1590 March.


Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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About the author

Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at

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