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Calm before Storm


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Calm before Storm

Next 10 days is now time to have alternative strategies and appropriate risk parameters always or you will get carried out and yes, the partner may get involved.
US default deal looms.


Markets can be subject to violent turns upon recognition of macro events.


Oilshare- long beanoil short meal and rarely talked about by commentators. Risk- always expect unexpected (greatest grain floor trader's rule collection).
Lets talk about major macro moves in OS. This spread split OLs over 36 or even 37 and pounces vert down to 34-ish with overnight stiff rallies described as only for big boy traders, trading desk pro ratio product.


So now meal has rallied 295 (near miss) to 335 on China buy meal news. This is a change of facts. Right? Same time India rumor increased oil tax. Both bearish unseen inputs that tanked OSZ after last weeks 59+ tick, $1500 bounce, OLB and more support areas under.
This is a momentum laced fast moving spread that leaves no prisoners.
This am early OSH up 50 ticks which is another grain trader rule from my collection from the best of old trader lore.

Oilshare and even wheat rallied today on yest bearish news. Mute the news?

Silver apex 16.985- 17.04 finally got whacked 26c, on this double fakeout in silver last few weeks.
BONDS- H 153.24 is a level and the high today, watch this or have someone do it for you.


Meats-you either bought that chaos panic day last week or take a pass. Risk approach with .50c clean stops FC 150, LC 117 were rare setups. Then you accept overnight risk from those points and let it ride. Its hard of course but only rule I could come up with objective, to catch vertical moves. Those green lines posted that day do have tendency to take out highs which looks like chance in hogs and cattle a week behind. Now shoe in, with todays late high.


If China is taking all US crops then in general we should get price inflation. Fed is rooting for it as the code to insiders? You better have a 2nd account if you dont recognize that event. I think its coming and next 10-30 days are in play as for as this market color.
Being early can cost you.


US Retail Sector stocks getting crushed daily. I saw this a decade ago because tax free tech industry goes for biggest money 1st, the trading community in Chicago went from 15,000 to about 300 in less than 10 years.

Coffee- hang on boys, this one keeps coming back. 130.18 high today, a line. Do we bust loose?


Workforce participation is 62% low tick, its bumped up smidge but its going a lot lower but thats a standard of living issue not for here. Economy is exploding up consumer confidence.

Employee-less companies! Is that bullish or bearish for the price of the stock? How about tax credits to put humans out of work? NASD has hit something at the high today. The last 4% up was fast. This is a number of mine.


Always early can be as costly as being late. Always use a stop so you stay in the game. New Bitcoin kids I have heard twice today from traders in Chicago have told me bubble type attitudes by longs. Stick an order to buy at $1,100, open order.

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ARP

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Alan R. Palmer

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About the author


Alan R. Palmer, Sr., is a successful independent trader and technical analyst specializing in agricultural, financial and stock index futures. He has worked primarily in the markets traded on the CME Group.

Alan started trading at the Chicago Board of Trade in 1986 in the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond pit as a local. In 1987, he bought his full membership the day of the historic crash and moved back to his passion, trading soybeans, and grains along with bonds and stocks. Moving from pit to pit as market indicators dictated, Alan used his charting calculations to spot pivotal points as markets crossed ‘key levels.’ This acumen is Alan’s specialty and now he delivers this knowledge and experience to his customer base. He offers a macro thought process to viewing markets and players as they act with predictive behavior acumen.

He began his career in the futures industry as a summer runner while thirteen on the floor of the CBOT in 1973 delivering orders and learning the rudimentary workings of the markets. He graduated from runner to phone clerk, delivery clerk during the Hunt silver squeeze, working for various brokerage firms. After earning a Bachelor’s degree from DePaul University while working full time, he began a career as a proprietary trader with Paul Tudor Jones, a world-renown money manager, where he perfected his technical analytical techniques.

Alan has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, and has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, Chicago Sun-Times, Bloomberg and Reuters newswires. He was the founder of Nasdog.com, an independent research and charting web enterprise, based on time-tested, support and resistance calculations for predicting multi-market swings. Alan holds an undergraduate degree in Business Finance Administration from DePaul University in Chicago.

Contact Alan:
Phone: 312.957.8248 or 888.391.7894
Email: arp@walshtrading.com

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