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FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures


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FX Rundown

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Euro (December)

Session close: Lost 28.5 ticks on the session.

Fundamentals: The Euro reversed gains on the session after trading to the highest level in two months. The Dollar began to stabilize after losing as much as 2.5% in about two weeks on the heels of strong New Home Sales and a positive rhetoric on tax-reform. Last weeks holiday abbreviated sessions wrapped up with a more hawkish rhetoric and strong data out of Europe. Its now a new week and a new chapter and the Euro has begun paring some of these gains from light volume. Tonight, Fed Presidents Kashkari and Dudley speak at 4:30 and 6:00 pm CT. Tomorrow will be pivotal with the next Fed Chair Powell appearing before the Senate Banking Committee to begin his confirmation hearing. With tax-reform in the cross-hairs President Trump speaks with Senators at a luncheon.

Technicals: We remain bullish, but the Euro blew through key resistance levels last week and the 14-day RSI reached 65. The market is due for a consolidation period at minimum. We are watching key support that aligns with previous highs at 1.1866-1.8815 and a close below here would encourage further selling down to the 50 and 100 day moving averages.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance 1.19975-1.2019**, 1.2154-1.2180****

Pivot - 1.1921-1.1934***

Support 1.1866-1.18815**, 1.18-1.1824**, 1.1728-1.1730***, 1.1672**, 1.15785*, 1.1481-1.15***

Yen (December)

Session close: Gained 45.5 ticks on the session

Fundamentals: The Yen was the best performing major currency against the Dollar today and the only one in the green. The Dollar pared losses before the session close but has still been subdued and the Yen has capitalized tremendously. We remain bullish and to start the week we have more hawkish talk from BoJ board members. The near record short position in the Yen has been established by traders who see no end in sight for the BoJ QE, however, this premise is coming into question.

Technicals: Todays extension to new swing highs after pulling back first overnight has created a bull flag, signaling higher price action through tomorrow. The Yen is now convincingly above major three-star resistance at .8971-.8991 and is working towards the .9045 level; a close out above here could potentially spark the next leg higher. First support comes in at the .8961-.8993 level which has widened against todays session low; a close below here will signal a near-term failure and encourage further selling.

Bias: Bullish

Resistance - .9045***, .9119**, .9321-.9359****

Pivot - .9018

Support - .8961-.8993***, .8890-8928**, .8800-.8828***

Aussie (December)

Session close: Lost 6 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie was pushed around by the US Dollar today, losing ground from session highs as the US Dollar gained back on a positive outlook for tax-reform and strong New Home Sales. There is no key Aussie centric data until Wednesday night.

Technicals: Price action traded to a high of .7643 today and failed against major three-star resistance, a level we expected it to test but commented on Wednesday that it will be a tough one to breakout above. The Aussie seems ready for a slight consolidation lower after this failure and we are watching the .7605-.7607 level on a closing basis.

Bias:Bullish/Neutral

Resistance - .7645-.7678***, .7726-.7755**, .7824**, .7891-.7893***

Pivot - .7605-.7607

Support - .7530-.7550**, .7390****

Canadian (December)

Session close: Lost 30 ticks.

Fundamentals: The Canadian lost ground today as Crude Oil was under pressure and the US Dollar stabilized. Traders were quick to capitalize on the recent rally as they look to a busy week that begins to unfold tomorrow with the Raw Materials Purchasing Index at 7:30 am CT, the Bank of Canada Financial System Review at 9:30 am CT and BoC Governor Poloz 10:15. Later in the week is jobs data and GDP from Canada on Friday.

Technicals: Price action failed to hold recent swing highs at .7897. Todays failure opens the door for a retest to major three-star support at .7790-.7803.

Bias:Bullish

Resistance .7851-.7856**, .7897**, .7950-.7960***, .8019-.8035**, .8293****

Support - .7790-.7803***, .7730-.7745**, .7671**, 7550***

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About the author


Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. Blue Line’s mission is to put the customer first and bring YOU the best customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications.

 
 
Contributing author since 10/6/17 

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