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Morning Grains 11/27/17


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DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 24
For the week ended Nov 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1.

Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 199.8 0.7 16980.4 18382.2 5678.3 90.7
hrw 146.5 0.0 6655.4 7575.9 2047.2 7.4
srw 12.6 0.7 1568.6 1567.5 516.4 69.5
hrs -43.0 0.0 4643.5 5755.3 1696.0 12.3
white 83.8 0.0 3853.8 3155.1 1360.2 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 259.1 328.4 58.5 1.5
corn 1080.9 25.5 21423.6 29320.8 14580.6 1029.5
soybeans 869.1 34.5 33452.1 40370.1 14564.0 244.2
soymeal 379.8 0.0 4731.6 4600.4 3556.3 126.9
soyoil 4.2 0.0 190.6 379.0 104.5 0.0
upland cotton 357.0 43.1 9369.6 6652.4 7292.1 940.5
pima cotton 17.5 0.0 438.7 393.1 362.6 19.7
sorghum 323.1 0.0 2533.2 2437.3 1769.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 38.0 15.3 23.2 7.1
rice 111.4 0.0 1286.2 1514.3 565.9 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower on Friday in response to a poor weekly export sales report. The demand in the export market has not developed as the bulls had hoped as the demand for higher protein wheats has not been strong enough to overcome the market dominance of Russia. Short term trends turned down on the daily charts with the price action on Friday. The market remains quiet and stable to weak, with the US and Russian crop situation the main focus. The markets are consumed with ideas that all the demand is flowing to Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. Crop ratings were a little lower last week and have been trending slightly lower the last few weeks. World estimates in general remain large and US offers need to be low to take business. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light Snow today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 411 and 401 December. Support is at 413, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 421, 428, and 433 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 411, 408, and 405 December. Support is at 408, 405, and 402 December, with resistance at 418, 424, and 427 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 612, 599, and 584 December. Support is at 617, 615, and 606 December, and resistance is at 625, 636, and 642 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed unchanged after posting some significant losses during the session. The market action on Friday came in rather light volume, but the Price action implies that another leg up on the rally is coming. The export sales report showed another strong week of sales, but only due to the big Iraq sale made in the last couple of weeks. Other buyers were quiet. The Iraq purchase has been the big bull story in the last couple of weeks, but the market was undervalued anyway. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm on tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet and steady. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely mid week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal. South Korea bought 118,900 tons of Rice at its tender, mostly from China, but also 11,110 tons from Vietnam, 10,000 tons from Australia, and 17,778 tons from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1274 and 1301 January. Support is at 1225, 1216, and 1212 January, with resistance at 1263, 1277, and 1286 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower in holiday market trading on Friday. Futures were only open for a limited time, but were open long enough for some new speculative selling to appear. Some speculative selling appeared to be adding onto positions, while others were protecting against options expiration as December options went off the board at the close. There was also some selling around on ideas of good conditions for crops in South America. The trade has been looking at the potential for dry weather to develop in southern Brazil and Argentina, but so far the drought has not been seen. Forecasts are calling for better rains in the drier pockets of Argentina this week. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but the funds have established a huge and near record short position in futures and might not be able to sell much more. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions. Not much selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.074 million barrels per day last week, from 1.054 million the previous week and 1.012 million last year. Ethanol stocks are now 21.9 million barrels, from 21.5 million the previous week and 18.4 million last year. Corn consumption for ethanol was 106.7 million bushels, from 104.7 million last week and 104.1 million last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 339, 334, and 333 December. Support is at 339, 336, and 334 December, and resistance is at 347, 348, and 350 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 243 and 235 December. Support is at 248, 246, and 244 December, and resistance is at 251, 259, and 261 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on Friday. Soybeans once again challenged resistance at 1000 January and once again failed. It could be that the rally is running out of the steam and a move lower is coming.. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil and Argentina. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits and also is making some economic changes that could make getting credit harder. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to an average planting pace now after a slow start. Planting progress in Argentina is a little behind the averages, but on about the same pace as last year. Argentina is expected to see some rain in the driest areas during the week, and this rains will be very beneficial if they come. The improved weather in South America has removed a potentially bullish price factor for now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1000 January. Support is at 991, 983, and 977 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1005, and 1012 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 322.00, 320.00, and 317.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 330.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3360 and 3280 December. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3400, 3450, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on in line with Chicago Soybean Oil. Demand is called steady, especially from processors. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on weaker export demand. ITS and SGHS continue to report less exports this month, and the trend is expected to continue into next month.. India has imposed a tax on vegetable oil imports to protect local industry, and this just points up the demand issues for Palm Oil. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 510.00 and 502.00 January. Support is at 508.00, 504.00, and 500.00 January, with resistance at 517.00, 522.00, and 527.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2590, 2570, and 2540 February, with resistance at 2660, 2580, and 2710 February.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Nov 24
WINNIPEG–The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association reported
the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended Nov. 22, 2017 as
follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2016/17 2015/16 2016/17 2015/16
Ended Canola Sybns
Nov 22 197,599 2,826,674 2,858,121 32,309 574,478 629,373
Nov 15 176,517 2,629,075 2,677,245 50,909 542,169 579,350
Nov 08 195,151 2,452,558 2,472,444 31,845 491,260 547,999
Nov 01 186,758 2,255,048 2,291,178 52,837 459,415 507,311
Oct 25 196,592 2,069,915 2,122,536 36,302 410,319 461,941
Crush Capacity Utilization
This week 2016/17 2015/16
Canola 89.1% 84.1% 87.4%
Soybeans 49.1% 57.6% 62.5%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 24
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended November 19, 2017. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 3045.5 570.7 200.5 271.5 92.3 1342.7 268.3 96.6 6817.0
Week ago 3068.9 537.6 199.8 237.9 96.2 1408.4 274.2 83.8 6963.0
Year ago 2093.6 735.4 151.3 203.6 60.2 1566.4 322.6 221.0 6539.9
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 371.8 83.2 37.4 91.9 18.0 347.5 18.0 11.9 1,041.1
Week Ago 424.9 84.6 44.2 60.8 16.1 394.9 13.5 9.4 1,151.0
To Date 5,702.1 1,082.5 808.3 922.4 142.1 6,428.7 1,237.8 142.9 18,229.5
Year Ago 5,251.6 1,377.0 671.8 745.5 95.4 6,300.9 2,046.6 110.0 18,726.5
Terminal Receipts
This Week 299.1 99.3 1.0 48.8 5.6 197.1 1.5 54.9 948.1
Week Ago 232.7 49.2 9.0 62.7 3.5 179.1 5.2 30.2 853.3
To Date 5,988.2 1,509.4 56.7 547.4 59.4 3,568.0 845.8 142.3 15,715.2
Year Ago 6,411.5 1,561.0 89.6 280.6 85.2 3,388.4 1,549.7 253.8 17,179.7
Exports
This Week 312.6 117.9 26.5 36.2 0.3 200.2 0.2 48.8 923.0
Week Ago 358.3 25.3 17.7 42.2 11.1 133.0 34.7 – 868.3
To Date 4,732.7 1,184.9 548.7 541.7 82.4 3,192.0 885.7 112.5 13,020.3
Year Ago 4,364.9 1,108.5 425.8 239.5 81.6 2,867.9 1,594.0 157.6 13,060.2
Domestic Disappearance
This Week 74.1 5.0 3.7 23.7 1.4 206.3 4.7 8.7 412.8
Week Ago 89.4 7.4 4.9 24.9 0.6 164.6 3.3 14.3 417.1
To Date 1,719.5 247.0 80.9 392.9 15.0 2,673.0 65.3 198.5 6,427.8
Year Ago 951.3 98.0 139.5 415.6 16.4 2,832.6 54.3 135.0 5,013.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils, and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures will be variable.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Novmber 38 Dec 225 Dec 53 Dec 20-Jan minus 9 Dec
December 42 Dec 58 Mar 31-Jan
January 42 March 43 Mar 37 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
November
December minus 31 Dec 70 Dec
January minus 21 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 24
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 493.19 dn 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 521.00 dn 1.70
2 Can 508.00 dn 1.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 531.00 dn 1.70
2 Can 518.00 dn 1.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 219.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 647.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 650.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 657.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 620.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,550 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 329.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1135)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,066 lots, or 4.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,680 3,685 3,651 3,667 3,683 3,667 -16 80,700 240,220
Mar-18 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,732 3,737 3,732 -5 2 34
May-18 3,818 3,825 3,786 3,807 3,818 3,806 -12 36,010 112,778
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,867 3,871 3,841 3,857 3,871 3,858 -13 308 1,628
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,928 3,937 3,910 3,927 3,938 3,928 -10 38 284
Mar-19 – – – 3,901 3,901 3,901 0 0 2
May-19 3,933 3,969 3,933 3,969 3,969 3,956 -13 8 6
Corn
Turnover: 388,246 lots, or 6.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,702 1,709 1,696 1,702 1,702 1,703 1 274,692 677,364
Mar-18 1,715 1,718 1,710 1,716 1,715 1,713 -2 88 6,170
May-18 1,752 1,755 1,747 1,752 1,751 1,750 -1 108,132 472,508
Jul-18 – – – 1,768 1,768 1,768 0 0 490
Sep-18 1,760 1,765 1,760 1,762 1,763 1,761 -2 5,332 70,718
Nov-18 1,778 1,778 1,778 1,778 1,773 1,778 5 2 44
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,214,996 lots, or 34.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 2,940 2,947 2,940 -7 0 1,476
Jan-18 2,913 2,917 2,890 2,893 2,906 2,903 -3 395,048 1,042,764
Mar-18 2,872 2,872 2,858 2,858 2,863 2,864 1 16 308
May-18 2,843 2,855 2,820 2,823 2,837 2,837 0 793,296 1,664,764
Jul-18 2,837 2,837 2,837 2,837 2,836 2,837 1 4 168
Aug-18 2,835 2,878 2,808 2,829 2,835 2,836 1 10 136
Sep-18 2,832 2,844 2,814 2,817 2,829 2,828 -1 26,622 158,104
Nov-18 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 465,620 lots, or 25.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,396 5,408 5,286 5,306 5,398 5,338 -60 124,568 176,844
Feb-18 – – – 5,414 5,474 5,414 -60 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,460 5,520 5,460 -60 0 2
Apr-18 5,596 5,596 5,444 5,444 5,626 5,522 -104 6 10
May-18 5,500 5,514 5,394 5,402 5,496 5,442 -54 329,704 372,598
Jun-18 – – – 5,558 5,558 5,558 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,592 5,592 5,592 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,450 5,504 5,450 -54 0 2
Sep-18 5,490 5,494 5,392 5,398 5,484 5,424 -60 11,342 38,450
Oct-18 – – – 5,416 5,474 5,416 -58 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,434 5,484 5,434 -50 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 405,342 lots, or 24.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 0 4
Jan-18 5,940 5,944 5,868 5,882 5,930 5,900 -30 215,216 551,820
Mar-18 – – – 5,996 5,996 5,996 0 0 14
May-18 6,122 6,140 6,058 6,068 6,122 6,092 -30 185,788 461,540
Jul-18 – – – 6,136 6,136 6,136 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 6,144 6,144 6,144 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,260 6,260 6,178 6,186 6,246 6,204 -42 4,338 23,526
Nov-18 – – – 6,220 6,220 6,220 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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About the author


Jack Scoville is a futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar.

He offers brokerage services to an international clientele of agricultural producers, processors, exporters, and other professional traders.

Jack writes daily comments of the many products he specializes in, in three languages, English, Spanish, and Portuguese.

He has been quoted by most major wire services including Dow Jones, AP, and Reuters. His comments have also appeared in newspapers around the world and on various radio and television shows.

Jack offers a dedicated and high quality service for his clients. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique view of the markets. He also uses his own charting program for technical traders.

Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles. He has been a broker off the floor since then and has been with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988.

Contact Jack Scoville: (800) 769-7021 or at jscoville@pricegroup.com

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